Yesterday the January shipment report for California walnuts came in, showing that the total shipments where 15% lower than the month of January last year. Zooming in on these figures, it is clear that this decrease is mainly driven by a serious decrease in the export of inshell material. If we look at kernel shipments, both export as domestic, figures are quite in line with the shipments of January last year. If we take a look at total shipments year to date, we see the same pattern: Shipments of inshell material are down by 7%, whereas shipments of inshell material are down by 47% (!). Slow demand from India and the Middle-east is the main cause for this dramatic fall of inshell exports. The relatively low volume of exported inshell material from the US this season can be partly explained shipping challenges, but also partly by export figures from Chile, which clearly indicate that Chile already shipped decent quantities to these markets during 2021. Overall the current figures, plus the knowledge that the US crop turned out better than anticipated in the first place, results in peace of mind for most buyers. Although most factors point at weak prices, it remains to be seen how much room there is still left for prices to decrease. At the same time low prices might help to gain consumption as well, it remains to be seen if, and if so when, this will become visible in the physical needs of buyers again.
