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Cashews January 16, 2026

As we move through January, final data confirms that 2025 was a turning point for the global cashew industry.
For the first time, Vietnamese export value exceeded the $5 billion milestone, reaching $5.229 billion a jump from the $4.3 billion recorded in 2024.
This growth was achieved despite a year where prices averaged 13.82% higher than the previous period.
The New Market Hierarchy
The biggest shift in 2025 was the reorganization of the Global Top 5. For the first time in nearly two decades, the USA is no longer the leading market by volume or value, as China has surged to the #1 spot.
Bullish Trends:
•The China Factor

: Demand for high quality whole kernels remains aggressive following a 36.23% surge in 2025.

•US Recovery:

Following the removal of trade tariffs, US buyers are returning to replenish depleted pipelines. Monthly export data shows US demand returning to historical levels.

•Industrial Scarcity

: We see persistent shortages and firm pricing for broken grades (Splits/Pieces) as factories also get each year more efficient.

Bearish Trends:
•Packer Liquidity:

Some processors are offering flexibility for forward shipments (March onwards) to secure the cash flow needed for the 2026 harvest.

•Supply Bottlenecks:

While Vietnam has the processing capacity, the availability of the upcoming raw nut harvest is the main variable. We heard some recent weather-induced stress in West Africa which can have an impact maybe but is not sure yet. But how it will really look like we will see that in the coming weeks.

Tet Holiday
The Vietnamese Lunar New Year (Tet) begins February 17. Most factories will close around February 9th. To avoid logistical bottlenecks and ensure April/May arrivals, we strongly recommend finalizing orders now.