After months of yoyoing prices the Turkish market seems to settle down due to the involvement of the TMO. The guaranteed prices as published by TMO formed a stable base for stockholders and handlers. Also the upcoming Ramadan, which will start in less than two weeks from now, is keeping the domestic market from unexpected moves as most parties are buying and selling hand to mouth, considering a likely price drop once the Ramadan needs are covered. On the other hand, there are still exporters who need to cover their forward contracts, therefor a stable continuation of the market isn’t guaranteed.
The crop estimations for the 2017 crop took a hit after some heavy winds and cool weather, rumours of approx. 680.000 MT are spreading its way on the domestic market. A clearer view on the crop size will follow in two months. The behaviour of the TMO is important but an uncertain factor for further predications, covering hand to mouth can be seen as the most likely strategy these days.