| The typically quiet summer period has come to an end, and buyers are gradually returning to the market. Trading activity is resuming, though the overall sentiment remains measured due to ongoing supply constraints. As previously communicated, crop volumes in both Australia and South Africa have been significantly reduced. This has led to a tight supply of snacking styles — particularly Style 0, 1, and 2. Prices for these styles are remaining firm, reflecting the limited availability, but they remain well below the levels seen in previous years. There is no indication that pricing will return to those historic highs, nor is there reason to expect such a shift in the near future. China’s crop is now entering the market. Reports suggest that quality has improved considerably, though it remains to be seen how accurate these claims are once product begins moving in larger volumes. On the procurement side, China has faced challenges in securing sufficient nut-in-shell (NIS), largely due to the significant price gap between NIS and kernel. This differential may influence China’s strategy for the 2026 season, potentially prompting a shift toward greater kernel allocation. Demand for ingredient styles is also showing signs of recovery, particularly from the United States and several emerging markets. Tariffs continue to influence trade dynamics, but pricing for ingredient styles remains attractive, which is helping to stimulate interest. Given the current market conditions, it is recommended that buyers secure snacking styles through to the arrival of the new crop. For ingredient styles, a cautious approach is also advised. Although more volume has been directed toward kernel formats, the smaller overall crop sizes have resulted in reduced total availability. |
