Since our last update earlier this month, we’ve seen further developments regarding import tariffs for cashew kernels entering the U.S. While more information is now available, nothing is confirmed yet and discussions are still ongoing. A key date to watch is August 1st, by which we expect final decisions.
Import duties
Proposed import duties currently stand at:
– Vietnam: 20%
– Ivory Coast: 21%
– Nigeria: 14%
– Benin and Kenya: 10% (still under discussion)The lower tariffs for some African countries could provide a competitive edge, although these origins represent a smaller share of global supply.
Supply overview
Most crops from the Northern Hemisphere have now been harvested, and a significant share has already been shipped. Vietnamese processors are slowing down purchases, driven by uncertainty in the U.S. market and the local 5% tax on RCN traded within Vietnam, which affects both domestic sales of RCN and kernel pricing.
Guinea Bissau still holds a sizeable volume of RCN awaiting shipment.
Meanwhile, U.S. imports are down 20–25% year-to-date. A number of smaller processors decided to temporarily halt production, likely resuming only when processing becomes sustainable again. At current raw and kernel prices, operations are not workable.
A longer-term note: Ivory Coast’s export subsidy for processed cashews is expected to be phased out, which may significantly affect its processing industry in the years to come.
Demand outlook
– EU: Demand remains steady. From July 1st, new retail prices on the shelf will start reflecting the market increases. It remains to be seen how consumers will respond, although the current exchange rate offers some relief.
– U.S.: Retail prices and anticipated import tariffs have led to lower short-term demand. This is expected to recover gradually as consumers adjust to new price levels but this will take time and confidence.
– China: Consumption is picking up strongly, offering a positive signal for the global market.
Looking ahead
Scenario 1: Downward price pressure
- Lower RCN prices (with declining quality and rising processing costs) may trigger buying interest.
- EU and U.S. demand may remain slow during summer holidays.
- Vietnamese processors may be forced to release stock to generate cash and repay loans, pushing kernel prices down.
Scenario 2: Demand recovery and price support
- Once U.S. import tariffs are confirmed, buyers may step in to cover remaining Q4 2025 and even Q1 2026 needs.
- This renewed demand could create upward pressure on prices.
We will continue to monitor developments closely and keep you informed. If you have any questions about the current market situation or are looking to secure volume, feel free to contact our team.