| In our previous report, we noted the reduced crop estimates from both Australia and South Africa, expectations for growth have once again been pushed forward, likely into next year. The next origin in line is China, but clarity on their crop outlook remains limited. Last season’s talk of tight supply led to high opening prices in China, only for prices to fall swiftly afterward. The market is watching whether this season will begin with more realistic and competitive pricing. Tariffs continue to play a role, particularly for South African macadamias, which are facing a 30% import duty into the U.S. starting 1 August, triple the rate applied to other origins. It remains unclear how this will affect volumes into the U.S. this season, with limited options to divert to alternative destinations. U.S. demand remains subdued, not only for macadamias. While the trade picture is slowly clarifying, uncertainty surrounding policy, and recent comments from former President Trump, leave open questions about final tariff levels. Whether the 30% rate will stand or be revised is still unknown. Europe presents a more stable outlook. Supported by a favorable exchange rate, demand remains consistent, and shipments continue without disruption. China’s approach to macadamia tariffs appears more constructive. There’s potential for a 0% duty on African origins, though hopes of implementation by 1 October now seem overly ambitious. A rollout for the 2026 crop looks more likely. Current trade flows are unaffected and shipments remain strong. Market Recommendation Snacking styles: Style 0, 1L, and 2 are tightening, with most packers already well sold. We recommend securing coverage early, as availability is expected to remain limited through the season. For ingredient styles like Style 5 and 6, prices are currently attractive and origin availability is relatively stable. However, with low stock levels in destination markets, timely purchasing is still recommended to avoid shortfalls. |
