The National Pecan Shellers Association announced their estimate of the 2019 USA pecan crop during their meetings last week. Their estimate was a bit larger than the two earlier grower association estimates. Please see breakdown on all three estimated below:
We expect the USA crop to fall somewhere in between the NPSA and grower numbers, which will give us a USA pecan crop very similar to last season. Most expect exports from Mexico to also be on pace to meet last year’s levels. We still need to get through the hurricane season, which last until the end of October, before we have a clear picture of the true harvest potential. Prices on current crop halves have firmed over the past few months. Pecan piece prices remain very attractive and are at historically high price differentials from the halves. Given the higher prices expected on 2019 California crop walnuts, we expect consumption of pecan pieces to increase as they become more competitively prices against walnuts.
The prices for Pecannutkernels are just going up a little bit. First new crop shipments are committed and sellers/processors are working for January onwards shipment now.
Hurricane Matthew is a danger for the USA pecannut crop when it would hit the state of Georgia. We will know this middle of next week. When it will hit the state of Georgia (one of the major pecan producing states) this will have an mpact on the crop. If not we expect prices to stabilize for shipments the first 3-5 months for 2017.
Offers are available on request.
Due to heavy demand for inshell pecans in the fields, prices for kernels, (halves and pieces) shot up like a rocket. Hopefully this demand will slow down a little bit and prices will stabilize. We do not expect prices to come down to levels booked earlier for new crop shipments. Our recommendation for the time being is to watch the market carefully but buy only hand to mouth for 1-2 months ahead.
The crop is for approx. 95-97% sold to the processors. Therefore, it is expected that prices will stabilize around todays levels. Prices were pushed up as demand for raw seeds was significant. Also, the demand from China for inshell nuts increased although that market is covered now for new crop and expected only back in the market for Chinese New Year 2018 (out of the 2017 crop). Huge domestic sales are keeping processors busy. It is our recommendation to be covered until June/July at least.
A stable market. Most of the raw material is bought from the farmers and in processors hands. As quite a good volume is sold already, we do not expect major changes in this market on the short term.
USA: most of the crop is sold and in hands of the processors. A lot of the product is committed. Prices are stable and not much fluctuations are expected. Pecannutkernels become more and more popular in the US for industrial usage and I picking up with the European bakeries as well.
South Africa: due to the weather conditions, crop is expected to be smaller but also have more defects. Most of the South African crop is sold as inshell to China (approx.. 85-90%). The smaller inshell nuts are processed into kernels and mainly used domestic. We have some quantities on offer for halves and for pieces. In case of interest, please advise.
The prices of Pecannutkernels are more or less stable. The US crop is bought and shipped as inshell to China or in the hands of the processors. It is not expected that a lot will change in this market until the first new crop signs will be seen around July/August. Smaller halves are scarce and recommendable to cover while buyers have to work with a lead time of 4-6 weeks before shipment as especially the industrial market in US is using a lot of pecannutkernels at the moment.
The South African crop will become available during June/July. Due to heavy rains, some varieties might have some quality issues. The majority (up to 90%) of the crop will be shipped as nuts inshell to China. The remaining part (not suitable for the Chinese market) will be shelled and mainly sold domestically.