The USDA has announced their estimate of the 2017 USA pecan crop at 277,400,000 pounds on an in shell basis. This is slightly larger than the 2016 crop of 268,770,000 pounds. We were hoping for a larger crop this year as early indications show great potential in Georgia, Texas and New Mexico. Although Harvey had little impact on the Texas crop, Irma proved to be very damaging to the crop in Georgia. An estimated 25 to 30 million pounds of pecans were lost to the storm. I am still optimistic that Georgia may still exceed the USDA estimate for the state, but we will not know this for several months. In the meantime, the market will need to work with the numbers provided.
There are persistent rumors that Mexico’s crop will be 20% smaller than last season. Although we are always a bit skeptical of their crop reports, we have no hard data to refute these claims. We were hoping to see some price relief on pecans for 2018 contracts. Hurricanes, Mexico crop concerns and strong demand from China on new crop in shell has cast some doubt on realizing a substantial price decline from this season’s levels. We will know a lot more over the next 6 weeks. Buyers should cover their 2017 holiday’s needs and consider waiting to address their later requirements until more facts are known about the total supply for 2018.
Source: Navarro Pecan Company
The prices for Pecannutkernels are just going up a little bit. First new crop shipments are committed and sellers/processors are working for January onwards shipment now.
Hurricane Matthew is a danger for the USA pecannut crop when it would hit the state of Georgia. We will know this middle of next week. When it will hit the state of Georgia (one of the major pecan producing states) this will have an mpact on the crop. If not we expect prices to stabilize for shipments the first 3-5 months for 2017.
Offers are available on request.
Due to heavy demand for inshell pecans in the fields, prices for kernels, (halves and pieces) shot up like a rocket. Hopefully this demand will slow down a little bit and prices will stabilize. We do not expect prices to come down to levels booked earlier for new crop shipments. Our recommendation for the time being is to watch the market carefully but buy only hand to mouth for 1-2 months ahead.
The crop is for approx. 95-97% sold to the processors. Therefore, it is expected that prices will stabilize around todays levels. Prices were pushed up as demand for raw seeds was significant. Also, the demand from China for inshell nuts increased although that market is covered now for new crop and expected only back in the market for Chinese New Year 2018 (out of the 2017 crop). Huge domestic sales are keeping processors busy. It is our recommendation to be covered until June/July at least.
A stable market. Most of the raw material is bought from the farmers and in processors hands. As quite a good volume is sold already, we do not expect major changes in this market on the short term.
USA: most of the crop is sold and in hands of the processors. A lot of the product is committed. Prices are stable and not much fluctuations are expected. Pecannutkernels become more and more popular in the US for industrial usage and I picking up with the European bakeries as well.
South Africa: due to the weather conditions, crop is expected to be smaller but also have more defects. Most of the South African crop is sold as inshell to China (approx.. 85-90%). The smaller inshell nuts are processed into kernels and mainly used domestic. We have some quantities on offer for halves and for pieces. In case of interest, please advise.
The prices of Pecannutkernels are more or less stable. The US crop is bought and shipped as inshell to China or in the hands of the processors. It is not expected that a lot will change in this market until the first new crop signs will be seen around July/August. Smaller halves are scarce and recommendable to cover while buyers have to work with a lead time of 4-6 weeks before shipment as especially the industrial market in US is using a lot of pecannutkernels at the moment.
The South African crop will become available during June/July. Due to heavy rains, some varieties might have some quality issues. The majority (up to 90%) of the crop will be shipped as nuts inshell to China. The remaining part (not suitable for the Chinese market) will be shelled and mainly sold domestically.