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Macadamia November 30, 2018

Earlier this week we visited South Africa again for some meetings. It is interesting to see how the South African industry is getting ready for growth. A lot of attention goes to the growth of China, which is in all reality very hard to measure, but we should not forget the positive news in terms of volumes from the most important exporter of kernel and inshell macadamias to the market, which is South Africa. There are a lot of new plantings in the ground and will come to bearing in the next 10 years. This should finally give customers a chance of developing new products and getting macadamias presented to a larger group of customers. Even so macadamias will remain to be a niche product accounting for maybe 2-3% of the nutbasket, but at least giving opportunities for development.
The current situation in China is giving some concerns as apparently some arrests have been taking place and blocking the grey route, which is for many nuts still a important route. The impact on the macadamias however is minimal as most of the goods have been shipped already and are sitting in warehouses and is much more a problem for the products from the US. This was also confirmed after a few conversations in China. The domestic product is even giving some positive momentum as prices are relatively low and are immediately having an impact on sales. Nonetheless, there are currently sufficient stocks, which should see them through till Chinese New Year. How this market will further develop is difficult to say as it can change easily, but for now the Chinese supply is causing a positive momentum.
On the kernel side the market is here and there seeing some offers. This will most probably be just sufficient for the market to get through till new crop. In between there is only limited new volume coming to the market. For new crop we are seeing more demand at price levels comparable to opening prices of 2018, which seems reasonable as it is all pure speculation with only limited information on the crop. Prices are available upon request.