The past weeks macadamias were quite a hot item. The cyclone in Australia was a bit of a shock, but the first signs are that the damage might be limited. The crop however is coming in rather slow and as such it is very tricky to give a firm estimate. The Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) downgraded the crop from 49.500 to 47.500 mton (1.5% Moisture) for the moment. This is only 4% damage, which is quite positive. Time will tell whether this true, but fact is that there is some damage and that there is even less product available.
The news from South Africa is also not very clear. Last week there was some concern in especially Levubu that the crop might even be worse than 2016 and the main growing area in Mpumalanga was possibly also a bit disappointing. Others however inform that the crop is looking quite good in Mpumalanga. The crop in KwaZulu Natal is looking healthy and will be the main driver of growth for 2017.
The situation in Malawi and Kenya is unchanged.
The demand for kernel is getting stronger and there is some concern whether there will be sufficient product to supply all customers with the snack styles. For the ingredient styles the situation is a bit easier, but also here interest is growing. On NIS demand remains strong, which is quite interesting since there have been some new arrests in the Linan area. This is like the 2015 season, but the fundamentals in this market have changed and we see more demand from final customers that have different policies and do not want to use the grey route. These customers are still desperate for product.
All in all, it is recommendable to cover your positions, because the supply situation will remain tight for 2017 season. Even though, it might be difficult to find offers as it is still early in the season (factories only just started processing) and there are quite some uncertainties. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor this market closely to make sure you get what you need. We are more than happy to assist you in this search.