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Cashews June 25, 2021

Interest for cashewnutkernels -both nearby and for later positions- remains very good.
Import figures into EU are continuously going up while on the USA it is reported to be down, but first 3 months of 2021 show an increase in imports. The question is whether eventual slight reduction of imports into the USA would be due to freight issues or demand issues (which will be clearer in the coming months as things will level out obviously). Our expectation is that any deviation on imports has to do with the logistic issues the world is facing at the moment.
While demand is continuously growing, world supply in RCN terms this year is expected to be down and as such we do not foresee any relief on prices in the near future.
On top of supply/demand (in)balance longer term and even short term at times (due to the worst logistics of the past decades), availability of containers and vessels remain a nightmare and freight rates are still going up. Early 2021 it was expected that all would be solved towards summer but the issues remain. Hick ups in arrivals are expected to cause stock issues and as such the gap between shipment prices and spot prices will be bigger than usual.
A warning for medium/longer term is that once there is clarity on the availability of cashew kernels (or the lack of it) the quality shall likely deteriorate as has been seen in the past when supply was suddenly short and anything looking like a cashew ended up in the boxes…