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Cashew July 9, 2020

This remains an interesting market with contractionary information. Prices for RCN are too high when we look at kernel prices or the other way around, kernels are too cheap when we calculate costs and RCN prices. Which will move and is it possible to maintain the current (lowest of the past decade) kernel prices? Supply, demand and quality of RCN are the key in this.
Supply: the stock of RCN in West Africa are OK but should be afloat or in Vietnam already. The quality of the RCN is going down as Africa does not have the knowledge nor space to store RCN in the way it should be stored. Normally they ship all immediate to the processing countries for processing and not store in West Africa. Stocks in bonded warehouses in Vietnam are ‘higher’ priced and not of interest to processors as they would loose money.
Demand: During March and April, consumption was very good but now moved back to normal levels. All in all we expect increasing numbers in comparison with 2019. Also the cheaper prices will stimulate demand with the remark that the cheaper prices will only been seen in the supermarkets towards end of 2020/early 2021.
To summarize: RCN at the wrong place, minor quality and good demand should cause kernel prices to increase again after summer when demand comes back in the market with EU supermarket tenders to be covered.