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15.03.2012 Walnuts
The walnut market is quiet and stable. USA crop is finished, Chili is starting, Eastern Europe is quiet and the Middle East is trading a lot of hand cracked USA walnuts from other origins and mainly from Mersin. Mersin is full of inshell Chandler and demand for Ramadan is not comparable to the last years. The problems in the Middle East and mainly Syria at the moment are causing a lot of uncertainty, borders are closed, faith is fading away and the economic development is zero. On the other hand there is enough needed when we look at previous years and the question is when this demand is coming back in the market. It seems that the delayed crop and shipment from California and arrival after Christmas are still affecting the market. California is sold out where Eastern Europe on the other hand is still having enough product. This could be a good moment for those buyers whom never dealt with Eastern Europe to give it a try and be prepared for next year. The price difference can become even bigger.
22.12.2011 Walnuts
The walnut market is still a difficult one to read. There are some strange things going on at the moment which makes it very difficult to give you a good recommendation. Where delays and consequently decreasing exports from the USA were expected to put prices under pressure the contrary happened as prices have increased further during the last weeks. Strong buying interest from other origins were expected to cause firmer prices, but we only see prices from Eastern Europe moving up, but India coming down. Buyers on the other hand are expecting prices to come down. We have our doubts based on the above, but we think it is advisable to cover at least a part of your needs. Coming 2 weeks could be a good period to try a bid as not a lot of activity is expected.
27.10.2011 Walnuts
Lot of buyers in Europe are changing the focus from California to Eastern Europe and Turkey. California is reluctant with offers, quality is still not guaranteed and the Chilean crop is more or less sold. Demand on inshells from Spain, Middle East and Turkey is still strong and for the coming month quite some merchandise will be transported to these countries. Inshells from Eastern Europe are of high standard especially from the higher regions, but mainly not cleaned. Kernels look very good from these countries and from India too. For the longer term the question, of what will happen when demand is moving to other origins when Christmas is covered and most of the crops prove to be bigger than expected, remains? For 2011 it is recommended to cover your needs and we look forward to receive your enquiries.
30.09.2011 Walnuts
Where the USA crop is not as good as expected the other crops worldwide are better, at least in quantity. Walnuts from California is too late for Christmas in Europe and this might cause some differences in price development. The European market is covering with other crops than USA, like Eastern Europe, India and Turkish processed US/Chilean Walnuts.
8.09.2011 Walnuts
NASS released the objective crop estimate last Friday at 485,000 Mtons Inshell.
This is 8% less than the California Handler Estimate and 4% down compared to 2010. The objective measurements show that the nut count/tree is down significantly on most varieties from last year, but the nut sizes on most varieties are larger. The nut counts per tree on Chandler's were down 16%, Hartley's were down 11%, Howard’s were down 21%, Serr's were down 31% and Vina's were down 15%. The only significant variety that had a higher nut count from last year was the Tulare which was reported to be up 6.5% from 2010. Overall the crop is delayed and the new crop prices will be released after a meeting of the Independent Handlers today. Only speculative offers are seen till now and as an indication, inshell Chandlers started 1,5 Month ago at $ 1,63 and are booked last week at $ 1,93. We expect the same like last year to happen and therefore we added the following price development for you.
26.08.2011 Walnuts
After the Turkish and Chinese buying interest for inshells from California, prices for raw product quickly increased. Offers are almost impossible to get, except from some speculative traders, but what will happen after Nov/Dec? We got informed that in the past week the biggest Turkish buyer became active in California and Chinese buyers (ot only from Hong-Kong) are visiting most of the growers, buying at good prices and paying up front. Maybe the European/Turkish buyers have to consider other buying conditions too, to get their product. The competition will become very fierce this way.
The kernel market in Europe is empty and some Turkish/Chinese producers are the only ones offering. Prices for new crop kernels are not easy to find, but when found slightly lower than current crop.
11.08.2011 Walnuts
The crop in the USA is perfect in time to follow up on the Chilean crop shortly. Prices in the past weeks were $ 0,40-0,50 under 2010 crop as 2010 crop is hard to find nowadays. Buyers whom have been patient in the past months and bought hand to mouth, can easily buy cheaper 2011 crop now. But keeping last year in mind, it could be recommendable to cover at least a part of your needs, as you don’t want to run in the same position like last year.
1.07.2011 Walnuts
The walnut market is stable and with 3 months to go till new crop and 88% sold in California, the new market needs a big new crop. But for sure it is delayed with 2 weeks and nobody is speaking about a big new crop at the moment. We are seeing some offers from India and Turkey and prices are more or less stable after a little increase in the past weeks. We will keep you posted about further developments.
31.05.2011 Walnuts
In a stable, but firm market we see prices slightly higher with not much demand and only some hand-to-mouth sales. We expect this situation will continue with the good shipment numbers, due to better sales to China and Turkey. Also reselling from Turkey is drying up and Chile is for most of the buyers too expensive to think about big orders.
19.05.2011 Walnuts
Prices for walnuts are quite stable with a firmer undertone. This is in contrary to our earlier expectations. We expected a slightly easier market. Expectations were that the Chilean supply would create some additional volume and easening prices. It is too early now to predict new crop. So far signs are OK but we have to keep in mind that we have had good US crops for the past 2 years and trees might need some rest.
18.04.2011 Walnuts
The walnut market remains quiet. The pressure on supply side of the market is increasing. Re-sellers are getting more active. The earlier forecast of prices coming down by Half/End April seems to come out.
3.03.2011 Walnuts
The walnut market is showing two faces. On the one side prices remain stable to slightly higher, while on the other hand more and more offers are seen. Some packers are accepting lower bids, but demand is still quite soft. From various origins we got signals that the prices are under pressure. It seems to take a little more time before prices will decrease, patience might pay off. We recommend to buy hand to mouth and try to get some business done with firm bids. For longer positions it might be wise to wait a little longer.
10.02.2011 Walnuts
Prices remain firm and supply is still difficult. But on the other hand, demand at this price levels is very limited too. Reselling is taking place from Turkey and other hubs in the world and offers from Eastern Europe and India are more often seen too. These factors might cause better prices soon. A lot of European buyers are waiting for this moment, but not only here in Europe, also some Californian traders are asking for offers from Europe. There was 501.000 mton received by handlers in California over 2010 and this was more than expected. Inventory on kernels as well as inshell were decent at 31 December 2010 and was not really affecting the prices directly, but might be good information if you can wait for further coverage.
1.12.2010 Walnuts
Prices for walnutkernels continued to increase (will it ever stop…?). buyers are still having difficulty with accepting the prices, but have to get used to it for the time being. Waiting so far has only resulted in even higher prices. Inshell Jumbos are very hard to get and especially on the later harvested varieties some quality problems are arising. Anyhow it is quite remarkable that prices are kept at these high levels as most people in the industry expected the bumper crop to have a downward effect on prices. When the situation will change remains to be seen but after Christmas demand might fade and result in some downward pressure on prices.
17.11.2010 Walnuts
The shipment numbers for October were very good and even a bit better than last year’s numbers. Although numbers are good, one may have noticed that only China and Hong Kong were making up the growth while the other important export markets decreased significantly. Keeping in mind that this crop was delayed, this is a little bit worrying as those countries all called for their goods for immediate shipments while pipelines were empty!! A question that raises is whether the Walnut industry is not focusing too much on the Far East market at the moment? There are rumors circling around that the Chinese consumers are not able to pay the constantly increasing prices anymore. We would recommend to cover your needs until Christmas and be patient for the 2011 positions. Availability should not be an issue with this record crop.
20.10.2010 Walnuts
Offers are still hard to find. Sellers are asking for firm bids and only book when its fits in their book, pricewise and shipment wise. Indications we have are as follows: Chandlers LHP80% - Usd 3,90-3,95 per lbs Chandlers LHP40% - Usd 3,60-3,70 per lbs
Chandlers LHP20% - Usd 3,40-3,45 per lbsJumbo Hartleys inshell – Usd 1,40-1,45 per lbs All prices are basis FCA California, USA
27.07.2009 Walnuts
India: The crop of 2009 is expected to be slightly down from the 2008 crop which was a good crop. As demand in the beginning of this year was down, the Indian exporters were expecting a good carry over but due to increasing interest (also because of the early Ramadan), most of that expected carry in has moved now and being sold.
As the 2009 crop is a normal crop, stable prices are expected or demand should significantly increase. The Indian exporters would prefer to have a stable market so they can built relations which is close to impossible with the price fluctuations we have seen during the past 2 seasons.
New crop prices for Indian Walnutkernels are available on request.
USA: first new crop is expected for shipment during September/October from origin. There has been a lot of demand over the past 2 weeks from all over the world but mainly from the Far East (China) and from the domestic market. As the % are hard to estimate, processors are for the moment mainly willing to sell LHP20 or 30% and not yet the LHP 80% and up. Also the inshell business is just for commitment with prices to be set in September.
Price indication: USA Walnutkernels LHP20% - Usd 2,35 per lbs basis FAS California