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15.03.2012 Hazelnuts
The downwards price trend of 3 weeks ago is fully compensated by the upwards trend of the last 2 weeks.
Currently prices are fluctuating based on the currency exchange and market conditions. The US$ is today just above the 1.80 level, which is the highest level for some time now. Prices in the local market in TL terms are fluctuating, due to sellers which are dissappearing as fast as they appear. So there is no constant supply of hazelnuts available.
The weather has been reasonably cold this year. Today it is about 6C and the forecast for the next 2 days is snow for the Black Sea area. There is better/warmer weather expected after next Monday. Snow is still present in the high areas, but it is not badly affecting the new crop as long as it remains the same and don’t come back after the warmer weather that is expected for next week.
The first estimations for the new crop are around 650-700+ thousand tons however this is just flower counting at the moment and it is not hazelnuts but just flowers. As you may know last year, the first estimations flower countings were around 630 thousand tons, but only about 450 thousand tons are now estimated. As it is still in the fertilisation stages, it is too early to say give a good forecast. The flower counting is still continouing and the official figures are expected to be released within the coming weeks.
27.10.2011 Hazelnuts
The hazelnut market is quiet and more or less stable. Biggest influence is the Turkish Lira. The Turkish government is aware of this problem and are trying to avoid inflation and keep the Lira attractive enough to promote the export. Question remains whether this is necessary for hazelnuts this year as the crop seems to be small enough…
30.09.2011 Hazelnuts
Farmers are only selling their product when prices reach levels they can’t resist. This happened last week and caused a wave of supply, but this only lasted for a short period of time as prices went down immediately. The demand for natural hazelnuts in the Turkish market is still limited and the export is not as good as expected.
The combination with the weaker Turkish Lira is causing slightly lower prices. This slight decrease could be around for a short period only.
8.09.2011 Hazelnuts
The season started and the game too. Farmers and middlemen are in a perfect position with packers asking for product. It seems that we are facing a very difficult and tough market for the coming months. The market looks like a sailing ship that needs some speed before you can see the final direction.
26.08.2011 Hazelnuts
Due to: Ramadan, delayed crop, TMO, exchange rate and speculating, the coming months will be difficult for Turkish Hazelnuts. Prices are increasing (if available) because of holidays and tight position on current crop. Prices in Turkish Lira have moved up after TMO stopped their sales, but this had barely any influence on the market as the Turkish Lira depreciated further against the Euro and Dollar. TMO is again playing quite an interesting role in this market and there are some rumors that they may release another 70.000 mton for sale after December in case needed. Demand is very weak and hand to mouth buying seems to be the best for the coming weeks. News from other origins in a nutshell: USA- The Oregon 2011 crop estimate is released at 41,000 Mtons. An increase of 46,4% compared to last year. Georgia – Quality down, but expected to improve later. Azerbaijan – Harvest started, but no prices yet. Italy – Perfect harvesting conditions and first product shipped already.
11.08.2011 Hazelnuts
The unpredictability of the hazelnut market became clear in the past weeks when TMO increased their prices by 20%. This had a big impact on the market. For farmers this (obviously) was great news, but it makes it very difficult for middlemen and exporters to set prices for new crop offers. Today we received a message that the Turkish Ministry of Agriculture revised the dates of harvesting. The coastal regions will start from today and the other regions from 18 August. This is about 3 weeks later than last year and will put some pressure on the first shipments.
14.07.2011 Hazelnuts
The hazelnut market is stable. Demand is limited and prices remain more or less the same. Even the lower crop forecast of last week is not of big influence in the market.
1.07.2011 Hazelnuts
After the expectation that prices will remain more or less the same or slightly increase, the Turkish governmental companies intervened again. TMO is selling 2008 crop and found buyers too. This made the prices decrease in the past weeks. At the moment we see prices at stable levels, which are not expected to go down further till reliable and objective news is coming out regarding the new crop. We know that there will be a delay in new crop and that Ramadan will start within a month. This combination and the rumors of a smaller crop than last year made it very difficult to get offers for new crop. The first new crop sales done in the beginning of the year are significantly lower than today’s market, which might become a burden to the processors and explains their reluctance to make more forward sales.
16.06.2011 Hazelnuts
The market of hazelnuts is stable, but firm. The uncertainty of the new crop is putting some pressure on the market, but as there is sufficient current crop material around it just has limited impact. By the end of June we should have a better understanding of the crop. The problem with the current situation is that the industry has never seen such a late crop and as such nobody knows what the implications will be. Anyhow for the moment a hand to mouth buying strategy seems advisable.
31.05.2011 Hazelnuts
The hazelnut market moved up again due to maintaining cold weather and a lower crop estimate. New crop is not offered at the moment, due to these uncertainties. Most of the farmers first want to have a better idea of the influence of the cold weather of the past months on the crop.
19.05.2011 Hazelnuts
The hazelnut market is continuously getting firmer, caused by currency fluctuations and new crop expectations. New crop is definitely delayed, but it is still early to make any predictions about the size of the crop. First counts were not as good as expected earlier. Where two weeks ago new crop offers were widely available, it now seems that the uncertainty about the new crop made processors reluctant to make any more offers. This tendency will most probably hold till more accurate information about the crop is available.
6.05.2011 Hazelnuts
After visiting the Black Sea area in Turkey we would like to share our findings of what we have seen and heard. Last year was a relative stable year with prices at higher levels compared to the past years. The governmental interference is negligible as the AK party is in a leading position already. At this very moment they are selling about only +/- 8.000 mton per month from TMO to Fiskobirlik, but this small volume is not expected to change too much for the elections in June. The effects could become visible after the elections.
But still never say never as some interesting moves have been seen in the past years!
Last year we visited the same area (Trabzon-Ordu-Samsun) and the orchards are looking very good. The only remark is that the crop is severely delayed. New crop is expected to be about 3 weeks later than last year. This could have impact on the first shipments, but compared to last year there will be not much difference as at that time the first shipments were delayed by the Ramadan.
This being the case it was difficult to see the development of the nuts. The delay in development on its own is not a problem for the quality of the hazelnuts. When the weather conditions of the past days stay the same, a very good crop is foreseen. The prices for new crop, only provided by the most speculative sellers, are around $ 600/100 kg and rumors say that there is traded under these levels as well. After a price fall last week by 5-6%, prices are rising steadily. The Turkish Lira is still the main factor in price changes.
While there seems not enough product to meet normal demand, but given the high expectations for new crop, buyers are not expected to be very active in the coming months. Prices are expected to be under pressure till September. A slowly declining trend might be visible, but the question as always is when will it start.
18.04.2011 Hazelnuts
The hazelnut market moved up again after several days of slightly lower prices, caused by fading demand. This sudden increase was instigated by the threat of frost and snow. In the Malatya area a lot of frost is seen and this has certainly affected the apricot crop. For hazelnuts it seems not that bad and a loss of 5% of the crop seems to be the maximum. For a very good crop this should not be a problem and given the perfect weather forecast for the next few weeks a good new crop from Turkey is expected. Frost is only expected from 2200+ meters altitude. The most decisive factor in recent months, the Turkish Lira, will (according to experts) not fall much further and stay above 1.50. This makes it more attractive to buy in U.S. dollars and given the expected new crop it might be a good idea to buy ‘hand to mouth’ again. One might also consider covering some positions for the 4th quarter, but without further setbacks, doing this later might give even lower prices.
8.04.2011 Hazelnuts
After a price fall last week by 5-6%, prices are rising steadily. The Turkish Lira is still the main factor in price changes. While there seems not enough product to meet normal, but given the high expectations for new crop, buyers will not be very active in the coming months. Prices are expected to be under pressure till September and a slowly declining trend might be visible, the question is when will it start.
3.03.2011 Hazelnuts
Due to uncertainty about new crop and stable demand, Turkish middlemen and farmers are reluctant with offering. The weaker Turkish Lira causes some changes, but the Turks try to keep the prices for export at the same level or even higher. As far as we can see now, the Turkish crop seems to be equal to last year and with more than a month with frost risk, the market will not ease very fast. In Italy we see better foresights, but also here frost is a uncertain factor.
10.02.2011 Hazelnuts
Different signals are heard in the market. Turkey is giving information about the new crop which is delayed with 3 weeks and this delay is used to make buyers wonder about their strategy. On the other hand we hear from Turkey that only 50% of the crop is sold and consequently there should be enough to cover the needs for buyers who have been buying hand to mouth in the past months. The positive effect on prices caused by the currency was not enough to get buyers interested and the question remains at what level they are willing to step into the market again.
As soon as they do, this immediately influences the market and prices. The Turkish farmers are currently using each and every argument to increase prices and it is expected that they will play all the cards they have to get prices to higher levels. So far they haven’t really been successful. Last year we have seen almost the same situation when the frost reports in March were used to get the prices to a higher level till August. An interesting difference, however, is that there was much more sold at that time and therefore it seems more logical that sellers might become nervous when demand is staying away long enough. The other markets, like Italy and Georgia are much more difficult as they sold significantly more yet.
22.12.2010 Hazelnuts
The international market is quiet while the domestic Turkish market remains rather firm and uncertain. Couple of remarks: 1. The total Turkish crop is 600.000 mton. Out of this approx. 127.000 mton kernels (255.000 mton inshell) is exported and in addition approx. 45.000 mton is consumed locally. This means that approx. 50% of the crop is gone within 4 months. The reason for this increasing interest for Turkish hazelnut kernels is due to an inactive Italian market and Azerbaijan & Georgia supplying Russia and Far East. 2. The remaining 300.000 mton is in the hands of growers (50% - in consignment stocks) and the traders. They are well aware that they have 8 month’s to sell this quantity as well as that next crop might be delayed due to harvest around Ramadan. When the demand will continue as in the past months, supply from April/May on might become an issue. Current price levels for natural hazelnut kernels are around Usd 6,25-6,30 per kg 3. The weather in the Black Sea area looks like spring while Europe and USA have a strong winter. This is not so good as current weather conditions might give an early pollination while this normally takes place end January/early February. An early pollination would mean a longer dangerous time frame with risk of frost damaging part of the crop. The 2011 crop naturally should be a minor crop (middle and upper regions had a bumper crop this year) but might work out as an average crop. Stockholders will remain reluctant to sell big volume because of the uncertain situation. A clearer picture can be printed March/April as details as consumption, crop and stocks will be more clear by then.
1.12.2010 Hazelnuts
In the past month prices were fluctuating just a little and buyers could easily confirm offers the following week. This situation has changed by now and is mainly due to the weak Euro/$ exchange rate. Prices increased substantial and might increase further as the main stocks are in the hands of traders and bigger farmers who are in no need to turn their product into cash. This could imply that prices will increase further.
20.10.2010 Hazelnuts
Prices in TL terms remain stable. Prices in Usd are moving on the exchange rate of the TL/Usd and became a bit firmer. Nothing is expected on short term and it is recommendable to keep on buying hand to mouth.
24.08.2010 Hazelnuts
The harvest of the Turkish hazelnutkernels still continues. The coastal area is finished and most of their product is brought into the market. Quality is very good, due to ideal drying conditions and the % of shriveled, mouldy and rotten kernels is much lower than average. The size of the kernels is bigger than average with % of 11 mm up bigger than usual. Crop in the coastal area is down in comparison with earlier forecast. Especially Giresun region, forecasted to be 70.000 mton, seems to have their harvest down to approx. 50.000 mton.
The harvest is continuing in the middle and upper regions and total crop will be known within 2-3 weeks from now. TMO is out of business for the moment. They are buyers nor sellers so market is totally free and moving on supply/demand and exchange rate. It is not expected that TMO will be back in the market on short term. Their stocks at the moment are just 2008 and older (2006 crop – 1500 mton; 2007 crop – 60.500 mton and 2008 crop 261.000 mton; all inshell). Prices: the prices are fluctuating a little bit. Lowest seen so far was around Usd 5,30 per kg while the upper end was at Usd 6,00 per kg for 2010 crop. The expectation is that prices will move in the price range also in the near future, based on supply/demand and exchange rate. Due to Ramadan the market is a bit slower and supply to the market is down. Also the fact that growers are aware of market developments, and not in urgent need of money, they keep their stocks awaiting better prices.
11.08.2010 Hazelnuts
The line of trees which are harvested is slowly going inland and in the coming period of Ramadan, most probably only going slower. Happily the weather conditions are very good for harvesting and the especially the drying after. As mentioned before the new crop is a crop with a lot of big nuts. For the coming period it is not expected that prices will come down for new crop, most probably for the old crop the prices will come down now, but the current TL/$ exchange rate and the buying hand to mouth in the past months are not pointing to a very big price decrease in the next month.
8.07.2010 Hazelnuts
In a quiet market, in which TMO is almost the only seller of inshell hazelnuts, the exchange rate is the only factor that causes some fluctuations in price. TMO so far sold approx. 42.000 mton. The current price is TL 5,00 per kg which will remain at this level until end of July. Rumours are that this will be the last month that TMO is selling and that the remaining stock will be pressed to oil. All the conditions for new crop seem to be perfect and the new crop looks promising. Most estimations are indicating a crop between 630-650.000 mton.
11.06.2010 Hazelnuts
The maximum price level is recently set by TMO and the market has seen the most spectacular price increases around the end of the month. This has not much to do with supply and demand, but basically only with the release of the TMO prices of the next month. Prices of 2008 crop are exchanged around USD 100-150 per mton less than current crop. TMO has sold around 34.000 mton inshell until today and most of this quantity was sold in April. The ending stock of TMO is expected to be around 400.000 mton. The 2010 crop from Turkey of 630.000 was released during the INC. There is some uncertainty about this figure and as such could be up or down by 10%. Availability out of new crop is not expected to be an issue. The question however is whether buyers will be able to wait until August/September for new product or maybe even till later as production might pick up slower due to Ramadan. Our recommendation is to cover part of your needs in order to make sure that you are well covered and wait for full coverage till more information is available.
12.05.2010 Hazelnuts
The market for hazelnutkernels is quite stable compared to other nut markets. TMO has entered the market and by doing so they have set a maximum price level. They have set a sales price for the stocks they have resulting in buyers feeling a bit more relaxed about hazelnutkernels and buy hand to mouth out of current crop as prices for new crop are far more attractive. More and more exporters start offering new crop, which shows sellers feel confident about the future, patience on covering might be rewarded!! It is interesting to know that the Turkish exporters are planning on implementing a new system in future and work with futures. Those futures can, according to their plans, be traded on an internet market place. Their goal is to make it easier to sell and buy hazelnutkernels. For the processors and exporters this could be a perfect way to make the market more transparent , but it requires also confidence and faith in behaviour of government, growers and industry.
29.04.2010 Hazelnuts
The market is quiet. Interest is very low while buyers are awaiting further developments. Most buyers are covered more or less until new crop and wait for further coverage until new crop becomes available. Due to lack of demand, prices might ease a bit (but keep in mind that also exchange rate is important!). Doing the mathematics, there could be a shortage in the market which has to be filled up by the TMO stocks. The reports so far are that TMO sold 15.000 mton in the market of the 2008 crop and that they allocated the remaining quantities of 2006 and 2007 crop for oil pressing. New crop is developing nicely and is expected to be a average crop between 600-700.000 mton.
14.04.2010 Hazelnuts
The hazelnut market is quiet. The reports on frost damage are stating that the damage would be max. 10%. The weather forecast for the coming 2 weeks reports no frost and after this two weeks the risk of frost is gone. As written in our last report TMO has presented their prices for 2008 crop and as said they are offering product from April 1, 2010. This means that the market is having less uncertain factors anymore. The only factor which is fluctuating is the value of the Turkish Lira. The TL is getting firmer. Due to the high TL the hazelnuts seems expensive for everybody else in the world. There are some parties which appeared to be speculating on prices. They have been offering during the last weeks and substantially under the current crop prices.
31.03.2010 Hazelnuts
That it would happen was known, the only question was, when. TMO will start selling some stocks from April 1 on. Prices are available upon request. Selling the 2008 crop by TMO could result in decreasing 2009 crop prices and that would make the market a bit easier. On the other hand bad frost damage reports can push it up again. More news is expected next week.
19.03.2010 Hazelnuts
NEWSFLASH The low temperatures in the apricot area also seem to have hit the hazelnut area. The higher areas are covered with snow and as a result suppliers are withdrawn from the market. Real extent of the damage will only become known after the weekend as temperatures are expected to rise.
4.03.2010 Hazelnuts
The international hazelnutmarket is calm and not much happening. Buyers remain buying hand to mouth and just covering their nearby requirements. The opposite is happening in the local market as there is much more activity and good demand as buyers are coverering their needs –short term-. So prices in TL increased significantly.
The new crop looks very good. The bushes are becoming green as leaves are coming up. The growers are a bit scared and worried as they are still in a very critical period as the risk of frost damage is still considerable (until April 23). The coming weeks are very important as just one night of frost can have a big impact!
16.02.2010 Hazelnuts
The new crop forecast so far looks good but we have to keep in mind that we are very early in the season and a lot can happen still. For the moment prices are just moving in USD terms on the exchange rate as prices in Turkey in TL terms are more or less stable.
The weather in the Black Sea area is too warm for the time of the year. During the night temperatures are just below 0 degrees Celcius while they climb to even above 20 degrees Celcius during the day.
The demand is, as expected, slow. Buyers are covered for the short term and are awaiting long term purchases. While there is breath to take, nobody is willing to step into the market.
Maybe the intervention of TMO, if not too much at once, might cause some changes in the market.
28.01.2010 Hazelnuts
After the warm weather of the past couple of weeks Turkey is now heaving some snow. This is exactly what is needed for a good development of the 2010 crop. The market is currently moving on with just minor fluctuations in price. The main cause of these changes are the changing exchange rates. This situation is expected to hold, but as always depends on the question whether TMO will interfere in the market and when. At this moment TMO still stays away from the market and is expected to stay out of the market during February.
Figures available upon request.
These figures are assumptions and are very much dependent on one major factor and that is TMO. If TMO will enter the market early prices will most probably ease and demand might increase. If TMO will stay out of the market longer prices will increase and this could have a negative effect on demand. All in all it is our recommendation to buy hand to mouth and wait how the market will develop further. Price indications at the moment are for 11/13 Natural at USD 640-650/100kg and 13/15 Natural at USD 650-660/100kg.
8.01.2010 Hazelnuts
The biggest factor in the Hazelnutmarket remains TMO. In a recent press release TMO informed that they haven´t made a decision yet for entering the market during January 2010. They will only enter the market when needed. Apparantly TMO expects that the market will get short later and first wait till the private stocks will decrease. Later when availability will become an issue they will most probably try to sell some stocks at interesting levels. All in all the market circumstances are very insecure and it is recommendable to buy hand to mouth. As you can see the year continues as we ended with a lot of insecurity.
22.12.2009 Hazelnuts
The Christmas season has started and this is felt in the market. Offices are just partly occupied and the market becomes quiet. After the decreasing prices the market is stabilizing again. The recently decreasing prices are not caused by the availability of the current crop as this is expected to be very limited. The main reason for the prices being under pressure is that TMO might start selling (part of) their old crop. Consequently growers are trying to get rid of their stocks against “high” prices in comparison with the expected decreasing prices. This makes the market a seller’s market and it is expected that TMO will not wait long before they will bring product to the market. Nevertheless it can be expected that they will bring limited quantities to the market as otherwise prices could decrease too fast, which could cause problems for the growers. Parts of the stock of TMO are from 2006 crop, which will be crushed to oil and it is currently a question mark whether the same will happen with the 2007 crop they have in stock as otherwise too much product will be available and will have a negative effect on prices. All in all it can be said (and is said in the past many times) that it is very hard to predict where the market will go and depends quite a bit on the activities of TMO. For the moment it is recommendable to buy hand to mouth and follow the market closely.
8.12.2009 Hazelnuts
2009 crop: interest at the moment is very limited as sellers and buyers are awaiting further developments. Growers are advising that total crop will be maximum 400.000 mton while traders and exporters are predicting min. 450.000 mton. So far Turkey has exported an equivalent of 170.000 mton inshell hazelnuts (85.000 mton kernels) and processed/sold domestically 30.000 mton, i.e. in total 200.000 mton inshell hazelnuts out of 2009 crop are gone. The carryover of the 2008 crop was approx. 25.000 mton.
The price in the coming months will depend on the policy of TMO (FYI: TMO has a total stock of approx. 480.000 mton of which approx. 316.500 mton is of 2008 crop). At what price will they start selling the old crop product? When they offer ‘low’ prices, the prices of kernels will come down but when they offer ‘firm’ prices, prices might go up as this is confirming the firm(er) market to the growers.
Buyers are showing interest for the beginning of 2010 but as the development is very uncertain there are not many exporters/processors, willing to take the risk. As current price levels are not of interest yet to the buyers not much business is finalized and confirmed.
Exports and domestic consumption forecast is expected to be around an equivalent of 540.000 mton inshell hazelnuts out of 2009 crop what means a ‘shortage’ of approx. 65.000 mton to be covered by TMO when we keep the 25.000 mton carry over in mind.
2010 crop: in January/February the first indications on the new crop will become available when the flower counting reports are announced. This may affect the price developments. When a bumper crop is forecasted prices might come down.
11.11.2009 Hazelnuts
Due to no demand –as buyers stayed away from buying hazelnutkernels because of the high prices and coverage until the end of the year- the prices eased a bit over the past week. Supply from the growers is continuing although limited as the growers are hoping/waiting for better prices again. Another reason for the slow demand is buyers covering in Azerbaijan and Georgia. Prices for hazelnutkernels from those origins are a bit cheaper. There is no additional information from the TMO yet and the next price movements most probably will depend on the sales price for the 2008 crop hazelnuts. Current price levels are as follows: Turkish hazelnutkernels Natural 13/15 mm at Usd 640 per 100 kg FOB Turkish hazelnutkernels Blanched 12/14 mm at Usd 730 per 100 kg FOB
30.10.2009 Hazelnuts
Prices for hazelnutkernels came down as there was no interest at all. Sellers would like to move some product and lowered their prices. Soonest the interest showed up because of the lower prices, prices went up again.
Price development will in the coming months even more depend on supply and demand than usual. Supply could become an issue when interest shows up but, when demand stays away as it did in the past week, availability for the moment would be sufficient. The other remaining question will be the policy of the TMO. When will they release product to the processors?
As the market is very uncertain, it is recommendable to buy just hand to mouth or take some advantage when prices are ‘low’ because of lack of demand.
16.10.2009 Hazelnuts
The prices of hazelnut kernels are still firm. Not many people are expecting prices to ease in the coming weeks until the end of the year. The best would be if TMO would release some of their stock to help the hazelnut industry as the current development is very bad. The current situation is pushing the big industries to check on alternatives and alternative origins as the past years have been very bad to develop brands and a stable market.
1.10.2009 Hazelnuts
The business is slow for the moment due to the sharp increase in prices. Prices increased on a daily basis and in the mean time went up approx. 60%!! in Turkish Lira terms. Prices eased a little bit in the past day when the rumor entered the market that TMO probably would release some of their stocks to help the market. Coming Friday there will be a meeting between the stakeholders of the market and hopefully TMO will release some product (although they advised first that they only would do this early 2010)
Some processors who sold at ‘low’ levels are pushing TMO to release some stock and so bring prices down.
Due to the uncertainties growers are not in a hurry to sell. The crop size is hard to predict but should end up somewhere between 350-450.000 mton.
18.09.2009 Hazelnuts
The market for the hazelnutkernels is hard to forecast. Nearly everybody was expecting a more competitive market as support from government/TMO diminished for the 2010 crop. Unfortunately, the growers who are not happy with the current prices are holding their stocks and it is very hard to find product in the market. This is pushing prices up at the moment. As the crop seems to be lower (maximum 450.000 mton inshell) than anticipated at an earlier stage (500-550.000 mton in shell), growers are not in a hurry to sell as they know they can sell later at better prices. Our recommendation is to cover your positions asap to avoid even higher than today’s prices most probably.
21.08.2009 Hazelnuts
Demand for hazelnutkernels is picking up, but at the moment there are hardly any offers. Until recently all seemed to be materializing well, but at the moment prices are rising due to the following reasons:
1. Rainy weather conditions are causing a delay in the intake of product.
2. Due to the `free market` conditions farmers want to keep costs down and harvest themselves without hiring other people, which is also causing a slowdown.
3. Farmers are not happy with the prices that are offered and as such are withdrawn from the market creating a difficult situation for the exporters as there is no product offered to them.
4. The crop seems to be smaller than expected. At first a crop of around 550.000mton was expected, but currently exporters expect a crop of around 500.000mton.
5. Working days are shorter due to Ramadan, which is causing a slowdown in production.
Based on the above the exporters are facing a difficult situation as they cannot get offers themselves. The main question for the time being is who can hold his breath longest. If sellers are in need of cash than product might be offered to the market again, but if demand will increase before that moment the market can easily increase by another 25 dollars per ton. Current prices are around USD 525 for 11/13. Premiums for the larger sized 13/15 will be minimal as the first indications show that 55-60% of the product is 13/15 and only 30-35% 11/13.
27.07.2009 Hazelnuts
The market on Turkish hazelnutkernels is relatively quiet. There is not much demand for the moment as buyers are awaiting the results of the announcements of the government. A ‘free’ market might cause prices to come down further. Having said this we always have to be cautious as government might change their plans!?
At the moment the growers union for example is meeting with the growers as a significant group of growers is not happy with the government proposal. The proposal is only for the bigger farmers with plantings more than 1000 m2 and below 750 m altitude (The government states that at least 70% of the land above 750 m altitude is government owned and that it is ‘illegally’ cutted forest, 10-15 years ago).
As there are a lot of smaller growers with orchards less than 1000 m2 and growers having orchards above 750 m altitude, whom won’t get any subsidy, they are very unhappy with this proposal and would like the government to make adjustments or come up with a proposal for them as well.
Current price ideas are as follows: Turkish hazelnutkernels 11/13 mm Usd 500-525 per 100 kg
Turkish hazelnutkernels 13/15 mm Usd 525-550 per 100 kg
15.07.2009 Hazelnuts
The Turkish government decided to support the farmers with a different program than just setting minimum prices for the product to the farmers (Barem price). They set up a 3 year’s program supporting the registered farmers with an amount of TL 1500 per ha from the beginning of 2010. The government declared that they have 406.000 ha with registered farmers and 241.000 ha which are not registered. They are encouraging the farmers of the not registered ha to pull out the trees and start growing other crops. They will pay them TL 600 to do this and probably support new opportunities for those farmers.
The government has announced that they will not buy any hazelnutkernels for the next 3 years!!
29.06.2009 Hazelnuts
The market of hazelnutkernels is relatively quiet at the moment, which is normal for the season as we are running into the holiday season. Prices are firming a bit as most private stocks are depleted and private exporters are now depending on the stocks of TMO which are more expensive. As such most customers prefer to wait for the moment and as they are well covered nobody is really in a hurry.
New crop: Experts are currently in the field for the final estimation. We hope to have a clearer picture in about 2-3 weeks. First estimations were quite a bit apart from each other. Farmers and Unions expected the crop to be around 460.000 mton, but private export sector expected the crop to be around 500.000 to 550.000 mton. Reason for this difference is that the private exporters say that the planted region is much bigger than before. The weather conditions so far have been favorable and the expectation is that the availability of small sizes will be limited. This is quite the opposite from last year and could impact prices for processed products for new crop as the discount for smaller sizes will be limited. All is still a bit early to judge. Besides the development of the crop we always have to take into account that the government can still intervene. Will TMO release stocks?
15.05.2009 Hazelnuts
Current prices went up due to TMO being the only seller in the market. Other sellers are withdrawn and just watching the developments. They are not in urgent need of money and expect more demand towards Ramadan what will be before new crop arrivals.
New crop is developing well so far. Development is slightly delayed because of relatively cold weather they are having in the Black Sea area. Blooming is slightly slower. Due to this slight delay it is a little bit difficult to give an estimate on the crop but until now most (growers and ministry of agriculture) are expecting the crop to be between 450-550.000 mton.