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15.03.2012 Cashews
The market for cashewnutkernels remains uncertain. Demand is nearly none, but prices are stabilizing between Usd 3,30-3,50 per lbs for WW320 on FOB basis.
Supply: prices for raw seeds are stable. Indian and Vietnamese traders/processors are currently arriving in Africa, but want to hold their purchases as long as possible. This is obviously their approach to try and get prices down but the contrary is the case for the first new crop. Especially in Benin, prices increased a little and this is also the expectation if the real business is going to start.
Crops in some countries of West Africa are delayed as is also the case in India and Vietnam. What the impact of this delay will be is hard to tell but usually the total crop quantity comes down with the delay.
In West Africa another important buyer, aside Indian and Vietnam, will be Brazil. Last year they bought close to 50.000 mton while this year they are expected to increase this number significantly. The Brazilian processing industry has an installed capacity of over 300.000 mton whereas their crop is expected to be around 230.000 mton this season, i.e. they will try to cover about 70.000 mton from West Africa.
Keeping the above in mind, there is still some room for prices to ease but when the RCN shipments are on their way to India & Vietnam (who will remain by far the biggest buyers for raw seeds) this will get more difficult. Processors may even increase the kernel prices as demand is expected to pick up from April/May onwards.
Demand: is slow for the moment. Buyers are awaiting further developments in raw seeds prices. Most of them are covered for nearby but positions after May/June are open.
22.12.2011 Cashews
The market for cashewnutkernels is quiet. Demand is slow. Sellers are offering but also not in a hurry. It looks like everybody first wants to wait till the holiday season is over before making decision for the forward positions. Supply side hopes that demand will pick up in January. Current stocks of raw nuts are limited and not much bought from East Africa yet. Increasing demand in January could cause slightly firmer prices as new crop from India/ Vietnam and West Africa will only be available from April onwards. Demand is strongly depending on consumer demand. As soon as buyers will know more about their sales figures and their stocks they will start looking at their forward positions. If demand around Christmas is strong carry over into 2012 will be limited and activity can be expected.
8.12.2011 Cashews
Market for cashewnutkernels is still inactive. Buyers are waiting for the figures concerning consumer demand and are reluctant to cover forward positions.
Supply: The crops in East Africa seem to be OK. Tanzania is reporting their crop to be between 110-130.000 mton while Kenya and Mozambique are informing that their crops are average (the comment to make is that in Mozambique due to aging trees, crop is slowly coming down; government is supporting a replanting program and we hope that this will create stability and increase the crop in the near future).
As Kenya is having an export ban on raw seeds, most of the Kenyan raw seed will be processed in Kenya while Mozambique only will be allowed to export raw seeds from end of January onwards. The Mozambican government is protecting the processing industry in Mozambique by putting an export tax on raw seeds of 18% and allow export only later in the season to give local processors first opportunity to buy.
The Brazilian crop is on the way and looks OK, although there are some warnings about quality issues due to the occurrence of mildew. For the time being the numbers for the Brazilian crop are close to 300.000 mton.
Both on kernels and on RCN (Raw Cashew Nuts) the pipelines are not full. There are kernels containers SPOT and nearby, but not always of the best quality, in a market on fire these would have been consumed, in today’s market buyers try to wait for better material to come through.
On RCN, some raw seed parcels are still available for sale in Indian and Vietnamese ports.
New crop from Northern Hemisphere will only be available from April/May onwards.
Demand: although demand is limited, prices are not coming down further. This could be a sign that soonest demand will pick up, prices might increase.
We noticed that forward buying (i.e. demand for 2012) is lower than previous years, likely due to high prices of the past months and uncertainty about demand going forward.
However, prices have decreased from their season highs already 15-20% on the main grades, which could trigger demand, especially in emerging markets like India and China, whereas USA and EU would follow.
Apart from the general liking of the large public of Cashews as a snacking nut, the health claims on nuts are showing a bright future for cashewnutkernels and other treenuts.
The dip in demand in 2011 to us is very temporarily. With price levels between Usd 3,50-3,75 per lbs (the low is not seen at this stage) for WW320, we expect market to pick up soonest again as the Middle and Far East (fast growing markets) started buying significant volumes at those prices in the past years.
Keeping the above in mind, our recommendation would be to be covered for the 1st half of 2012 and probably, when calculations allow, also take some cover on 2nd half of 2012 as the crops on the Northern Hemisphere are still some time ahead of us. Forecasting remains difficult as for now all looks OK, but on the other hand a lot can still happen!!
27.10.2011 Cashews
Prices of cashewnutkernels came down significantly over the past weeks. The main reason for the prices to come down is the lack of demand. Buyers were (and still are) convinced that prices are too high and that there is more downwards potential than current levels show.
Although, we have to keep in mind that lower offers became available –mainly- from financial weaker suppliers and not from the financial independent processors as these processors had to turn their stock into cash to fulfill their commitments with their banks on loans.
It looks like the obligations are more or less filled in and therefore, over the past couple of days, we see prices stabilize and even show some firm undertone.
Two remarks to make:
- Stocks of raw nuts in Indian and Vietnam are not sufficient to fill the gap until new crop (March/April).
- Prices for the remaining uncommitted raw seeds in Indian and Vietnam remain relatively high. In our opinion it is wise to cover until the end of the year and partly for the 1st quarter of 2012 and be patient for later positions as more information on new crops in the northern hemisphere will be available.
30.09.2011 Cashews
The market of cashewnutkernels remains quiet and not much activity is shown by buyers. Most buyers are expecting prices to come down. Demand: US and European demand is behind last year’s figures. US and Europe are expecting a decrease of 5-10% on an annual basis. The opposite seems to be the case in the Far and Middle East. Demand in India (on short term) is increasing because of the start of the festival season. This is mainly for pieces but also the interest for wholes is picking up locally.
Supply: It is too early to speak about supply yet but so far Brazil (October/November harvest) and Tanzania look okay while Mozambique volume is decreasing due to older trees. Hopefully this will create some relief in the market with prices becoming more attractive. We have to keep in mind that Mozambique will process approx. 30-40.000 mton - approx. 40-50% of their crop, where Tanzania is able to process approx. 25-30% of their own crop. The remaining raw seeds will become available for export to India and Vietnam but will only start early next year. Rumors are that the stocks of raw seeds are not sufficient to fill the gap until new crop arrivals from East Africa but it is difficult to get the correct figures and therefore difficult to judge this. The coming weeks are very important. When demand will pick up on spot basis to cover shortages, prices may increase a little bit. When buyers can and will stay out of the market for a couple of weeks, prices could come down further to levels below Usd 4,00 for WW320! We will keep you posted. We have some attractive offers available on request…..
8.09.2011 Cashews
Demand for cashewnutkernels is very slow. The availability on the spot is limited in Europe as well as in the USA as stockholders are not able/willing to keep stocks for a longer period. Current kernel prices are lower than the equivalent of the raw seeds processors bought at. Current lower prices are caused by lack of demand together with the need of small and medium packers to sell, to pay the workers for the Onam festival. It is expected that prices will stabilize around current levels or slightly increase when demand will pick up. The next crops which will become available, are Mozambique (approx.. 65-70.000 mton), Tanzania (approx. 100-110.000 mton), Kenya and Brazil. Those origins are expecting average to good crops to be harvested October/November. Kernels will become available from January onwards and might create some relief in the market. A hypothesis is that packers are not covered until end of the year as consumer demand might slow down. Packers are counting on the importers to cover their short position during October /November. Importers are running a tight position because prices are high and the potential risk of lower prices during the first quarter of 2012. What will happen then? No spot availability with demand pushing prices up again!
26.08.2011 Cashews
Low demand is causing prices of cashewnutkernels to be under pressure. Most buyers from USA and Europe are returning from their summer break and calculating their positions. They are expected to come back to the market in the coming weeks to cover their last quarter 2011 requirements. Also the interest in India and China is expected to increase in the coming weeks when buyers will be active to purchase cashewnutkernels for the festival season. Because of those festival seasons, the factories in India and Vietnam also need cash to pay the workers and might accept discounted prices. We have to keep in mind that the West African crop is almost completely afloat and no additional volume of raw seeds from Africa to be expected shortly. The Brazilian crop so far looks OK and might give some relief to the kernel prices as USA will start covering from Brazil again as well. The Tanzanian and Mozambican crop will only be available for shipment from early 2012 onwards. Local politics could even delay export dates. In summary: a difficult market to judge and forecast. Increasing interest might create firmer prices while need of cash and increasing supply (from mainly –or should we say only- Brazil) might put a little more pressure on prices than lack of demand is doing at the moment.
11.08.2011 Cashews
Even during the more quiet summer period, prices did not ease. Is this a sign for the busy months ahead?? Will prices go up further with WW320 offered at prices over Usd 5,00 per lb? If so what will happen to consumer demand? The way prices will develop depends on demand for the time being. The next important number will be the size of the Southern Hemisphere crops in Brazil, Tanzania and Mozambique during the last quarter. Our recommendation for the time being remains to buy hand to mouth as demand is a question mark but also the worldwide economic situation might change sentiments in the nut market.
14.07.2011 Cashews
Demand of cashewnutkernels is stabilizing a little bit. Buyers are reluctant to buy at those high prices. Sellers are not in a hurry to sell but when we would have some weeks with slower demand, they probably could become interested to pick up some business at discounted prices. In our opinion, if it will happen, this will be a tentative moment of lower prices as usually demand is picking up in August for deliveries last quarter of the year. Demand in Europe and USA will pick up, but, probably even more important, also in India and Vietnam as those countries are entering the festival season shortly. Especially cashew pieces might become short until the end of the year. We are following this market very closely and will keep you posted on a regular basis of the latest developments.
1.07.2011 Cashews
The market for cashewnutkernels is very difficult. There is not much light at the end of the tunnel yet.
Facts:
- Crops in West Africa are nearly over. Most shipments are on their way to India/Vietnam. Quality (and therefore exportable quantity) of the Ivorian crop disappointing and significantly down.
- Increasing raw seed prices and processing costs in India and Vietnam (30-40% increase) are having a significant impact on kernel prices.
- Delays and rumours of defaults on shipments from India and Vietnam
- Consumer demand slightly down but not as much as anticipated earlier. Most annual contracts were done at levels lower than today’s market.
- Starting of festival seasons in India and Vietnam creating local demand
We are waiting for the first indications on the Brazilian crop. Hopefully this crop will give some relief on supply. Until than (October/November) we do not expect much changes in this market unless demand will fall. It remains our recommendation to buy hand to mouth and be covered 3 months ahead (keeping order and shipment times in mind).
In September an international cashew conference will be organized in The Gambia. You are invited. The whole cashew sector will be present there. Representatives of the world producing and processing countries, i.e. Africa, India, Vietnam and Brazil will come to present their origin. Also buyers from all over the world will come to discuss their views and recommendations on the market. We look forward to meeting you there.
www.africancashewalliance.com/conference
16.06.2011 Cashews
During the INC in Budapest (May 2011) we were advised that WW320 prices could go up to Usd 4,50 per lbs FOB. It was hard to understand this as consumer demand is slowing down and packers checking on alternatives for their packages/ nut mixes BUT, prices for WW320 are coming close to this level now. Supply from –mainly- India & Vietnam is not up to speed yet due to problems on labour and the arrivals of the raw seeds from West Africa (in the graph on the right hand you see the importance of raw nuts from Africa). It is hard to forecast further development. Our advice remains to buy hand to mouth for the moment. Slowdown in buying during summer might create some ‘special’ opportunities although we do not foresee prices to come down to levels much lower than Usd 4,00 per lbs for the time being.
31.05.2011 Cashews
Mainly due to uncertainties in the market of cashew raw seed and the continuous demand, prices became firmer again over the past days. The disappointing news from Ivory Coast on the quality of the raw seeds and therefore exportable quality of the raw seeds, was making processors nervous.
The continuous demand from Europe and USA, as well as the expected increasing demand from China and India from summer on is fuelling this nervousness of the processors who are uncertain about what they should do. Sell kernels now without being able to cover raw seeds against the equivalent purchase price for the raw seeds is a very difficult decision to make.
We do not expect a quick turnaround of this market unless demand crashes.
Our recommendation is to buy hand to mouth for the moment.
19.05.2011 Cashews
Prices remain high for cashewnutkernels. This is due to continuous demand and question marks on availability of raw nuts. Whereas we expected shipments from Ivory Coast to give relief to the market, it looks like export from Ivory Coast will be down by 10-15%, i.e. somewhere around 40-50.000 mton. As reported previously, also Vietnam has some crop issues in regard to quantity, but probably as important, the quality of the raw nuts. Prices of kernels in Vietnam increased to levels close to or even higher than the Indian kernel prices.What to do is hard to advise. We do not expect big price increases in the near future but on the other hand also the chances for really lower prices seem unlikely. It is probably best to keep on buying hand to mouth. Make sure that when one can afford, cover part of your requirements to secure shipments.
18.04.2011 Cashews
The market for cashewnutkernels remains uncertain. Buyers are awaiting prices to come down. The news that Ivory Coast will start exporting soon again in combination with the shipment of the Guinea Bissau raw seeds should give a relief to the market. During summer enough raw seeds should be available especially when we also add the Indian and Vietnamese crops. Sellers though are not so convinced. Their comments are that the Vietnamese crop is down 20-50%, that the quality of the raw seeds from some West African countries are questionable and that the Chinese and Indian market are growing very fast. We recommend to continue buying hand to mouth, probably take advantage when the market drops a couple of percent in the coming weeks when enough supply of raw seeds will become available.
8.04.2011 Cashews
The market of cashewnutkernels is still uncertain. Sellers and buyers are reluctant to offer forward positions as there are still a number of uncertainties with regards to crop, shipments from West Africa and on the other side consumer demand.
Supply: The crops in West Africa are becoming available for shipment. Most of the origins are having sufficient supply with the remark that some origins are having some problems with the quality. Very important in West Africa is also the situation in Ivory Coast. We hope that the problem will be solved soonest so that supply can start and port of Abidjan can export the raw seeds again. Ivory Coast is the most important supplier of raw seeds from Africa and delay on solving the problem will (is already) having an impact on supply.
The crop in India is delayed by 4-6 weeks. Vietnam is having heavy rains creating problems with the harvest and drying of the raw seeds. Demand: Due to the high prices we start to feel more and more resistance from importers, packers and consumers. Packers start to look for alternatives and consumers are not accepting the high prices (this is mainly for Europe and USA but also the Far East is showing lower figures on consumer demand). As the upward potential is limited in our opinion, we recommend to buy hand to mouth for the moment and just 3-4 months ahead.
3.03.2011 Cashews
The market in general is quiet. Everybody is awaiting (and keeping a close eye on) the developments in this market.
Supply looks okay for the moment with some remarks to make:
India: Crop looks average to good, but fact is that the crop is delayed by about 4 to 6 weeks. When we visited India a week ago we saw the first flowering. The delay might cause some issues in the 3rd nut set as this could be during rainy season and damage part of the crop.
Vietnam: Crop looks good and prices for raw seeds in Vietnam are easing a little bit. This is opposite to kernel prices which especially from this origin, are still going up.
Brazil: Definitely a crop problem. Total crop to be approx. 200.000 mton
East Africa: Good crops but supply to world market is limited. Mozambique is processing about half of the crop of approx. 65-70.000 mton. Kenya has a small crop and processes all domestically as they have an export ban on raw seeds. Tanzania exported a significant quantity of their crop already to India and Vietnam. Those raw seeds arrived and are processed now in India and Vietnam.
West Africa: The biggest supplier from West Africa is having internal political issues making it impossible to ship from Abidjan. Part of their crop will be shipped via Ghana but Tema port is not ready to move the big volumes. Burkina Faso and Benin are expecting good crops which will be available for shipment end March/April.
Demand is slower as anticipated although consumer sales for the moment are not too bad, keeping in mind the high prices.
USA: demand is still okay but expected to decrease between 5-10% in the coming months. As USA accounts for approx. 50% of the world exported volume, this will most probably have an impact on world demand
Europe: So far so good but buyers are only covering their nearby requirements. Buyers are hoping that good crops in the Northern Hemisphere will give some relief to prices later on.
India; demand is good although there is some resistance at these high levels. A note to make is that only approx. 50% of Indian population is buying cashewnutkernels at the moment. What if prices ease a little bit and the other 50% will start eating cashewnutkernels as well?
China: is a growing market, more used to current price levels than Europe and USA. With the fast growing middle class, this origin is expected to play an important role in world demand in the near future.
Middle East: Dubai and Turkey are working as a hub for the cashew imports into the middle east. Those countries are doing quite well and growing rapidly.
We have to keep in mind that West African crops, together with the Indian and Vietnamese crops, are the only reason for prices to ease, but will only be available in the main processing countries during July/August. Europe and USA, however, need July/August shipments for their Christmas sales!!Keeping above continuous demand in mind until new supply comes available, we do not foresee a big change in prices on short/6 months terms. The only significant decline would occur in our opinion when demand will fall dramatically and good crops are expected!
10.02.2011 Cashews
The market of cashewnutkernels is not so active. Some buyers are covering their nearby positions but sellers and buyers are reluctant to offer 2nd half 2011. Sellers and buyers are curiously awaiting northern Hemisphere producing countries to bring in their crop. India and Vietnamese crops will become available in March and April. The West African crop will become available in February and March. India is reporting a delay in arrivals between 2-4 weeks while in West Africa we have uncertainties on the shipments of the Ivory Coast crop due to the political issues. What the market will do is hard to predict. With stable demand we expect prices to stabilize around todays levels but with a minimum movement in supply or demand, market might move rapidly up or down. Good crops in all origins could give some relief to the prices.
22.12.2010 Cashews
The market for cashewnutkernels is not very active those days. Prices are very high for kernels as well as for raw seeds. The quiet period around Christmas could give some relief to the prices, but when this will happen is a question mark, we expect that additional demand will diminish this relief immediately and market might jump back or even go up further. The prices paid for the raw seeds are equivalent to today’s market levels. This means that kernel prices are expected to remain around those levels or firmer until ‘cheaper’ raw seeds will become available from West Africa or India & Vietnam from March/April onwards. It is our recommendation to be covered for the 1st quarter and probably take a partial coverage for the 2nd quarter.
1.12.2010 Cashews
Prices for cashewnutkernels remain very firm. There are 2 main reasons for this: The continuous demand; due to covering hand to mouth –because of the high prices- interest is shown on a daily basis. The limited supply of raw seeds; the availability of raw seeds in India and Vietnam is low while the next crops will only become available in April/May 2011. The news from the various origins is not helping a lot as it is confirming the above.
India: limited availability of raw seeds. Strong demand local market. Vietnam: limited availability of raw seeds. Continuous demand from mainly the Chinese market but also Europe and US. Brazil: slow arrivals of the new crop. More and more indications that the crop will be only between 150-200.000 mton. East Africa: Tanzanian auctions are very high priced but India and Vietnam are supporting the prices for prompt shipments. Mozambique is not allowed to export yet, expected middle of January. Both countries are forecasting an average to good crop.
17.11.2010 Cashews
The market remains very difficult. Availability is still an issue and the upcoming markets in India and China are taking more and more product. Also the confirmation of a Brazilian crop of max. 200.000 mton is having a negative impact (upward) on price development. Current price levels for WW320 are around Usd 3,55-3,60 per lbs but going up nearly every day. As buyers are just covering hand to mouth for the moment, demand continuous, while it would probably help when demand would disappear for a couple of weeks for prices to settle.
20.10.2010 Cashews
Due to lack of interest, prices in India and Vietnam are coming down a little bit. Processors/exporters are trying to generate some interest by offering discounted prices. As most of the buying for 2010 is done and buyers have time for 1st quarter of 2011, there is not much pressure to buy. Importers and packers are also a little bit reluctant to buy now while demand 2011 is unsure because of the higher kernel prices. What will the final consumer decide? India: availability of stocks of raw seeds are limited. Demand is slowing down a little bit. Vietnam: Chinese demand is slowing down. Their stocks of raw seeds are limited as well. Indonesia: Prices for raw seeds are coming down due to quality issues. Heavy rains have had a negative impact on the quality. Prices still around Usd 1500 per mton. Brazil: Some rumours are circulating in the market that Brazil is facing a potential crop problem. One of the growing regions is indicating a downsized crop because of bad weather. Uncertainty is the key word for Brazil for the moment. East Africa: Tanzania started some auctions. Price indication around Usd 1500 per mton. Does this reflect current kernel prices? Is this price affordable to pay and in parity with kernel prices? Mozambican crop will start shortly. Export from Mozambique will only be allowed from end January onwards.
24.08.2010 Cashews
Although the demand in Europe and USA is limited, prices are still firming. The continuous demand in India and China confirm to seller that even today’s prices are workable. The availability of raw seeds remain an issue/question mark. Is it really true that stocks of raw seeds are gone? Or is there still some volume in the hand of financial independent traders who are trying to push up prices further and sell limited volumes into the market? Fact is that buyers are reluctant to cover on the one hand as they are uncertain on the price development but are also thinking about covering some volume to make sure that they have kernel available for their processing. The next relief could come from the East African and Brazilian crops. Raw seeds from those origins will be available for processing in November/December. The Brazilian crop though will be processed in Brazil and the local governments in Tanzania and Mozambique are expected to protect their local industries by allowing export of raw seeds only to happen from Jan/Feb of next year. After that we have to wait for the Indian and Vietnam new crop which will be harvested in March/April. Keeping the above in mind it might be interesting to cover at least your 2010 requirements and probably also part of the 1st quarter/half of 2011.
11.08.2010 Cashews
Market is Europe is quiet. Most buyers are still enjoying their summer break and coming back during 2nd half August. Usually demand is picking up by then as they are working out their Christmas sales projections required for latest October arrivals. The current 'high' prices might hurt demand but it is hard to say to what extension.
Usually during the last quarter, European supermarkets are committing their next year’s contracts. The prices in Euro terms will be significant higher than today’s levels due to higher cashew prices in Usd but also because of the stronger Usd than last year! We also have to keep in mind the strong growth of demand in Asia and Middle East pushing prices up.
The availability of raw seeds is limited and processors in India and Vietnam will start focusing on East Africa shortly as crop will become available September/October.
29.07.2010 Cashews
Where a very quiet market was expected during July and August there has been continuous buying so far albeit no real volumes have been traded. Demand came from basically all different markets including Asian countries who bought for their Ramadan requirements. Other destinations covered because of the fear the festival season in India would push prices up further. This activity resulted in firming prices to high levels of about 3.10/3.15 basis FOB today. The expectation is that prices will remain firm for the months to come due to the above mentioned festival season in India and could even be pushed higher when demand remains strong, which can be expected as still some covering needs to take place. The risk of defaults however is also growing and therefore buyers remain reluctant to cover too far out. All in all it is difficult market, where it seems recommendable to be covered for some degree.
8.07.2010 Cashews
The market of cashewnutkernels is hard to judge at the moment. Buyers are awaiting lower prices. They stay out of the market and presume that no inquiries will trigger packers to discount their prices to generate interest. In addition to this, financial requirements of the bank might force packers to sell at a discount, especially the smaller packers. The medium and bigger packers are not in a hurry. They have sufficient commitment for July/August shipment and they are expecting demand to return after summer. Another uncertain factor in the market are the stocks of raw seeds. Some are advising that there are quite some quantities available in the origins in the hands of strong traders while others are advising that nearly all raw seeds are sold and that total world supply will be down by approx. 10% overall. We will know only in 6-8 months from now when all West African crop is sold and processed most probably. Fact remains that current prices are high in comparison with the 2 and 5-years average.
11.06.2010 Cashews
The market in Europe is quiet. Buyers are just waiting and covering nearby positions on a hand to mouth basis. Most buyers need to book additional product for the 2nd half of 2010, but wait as long as possible, hoping kernel prices will ease. So far they have very limited success with this policy. Prices came down a couple of cents in the past 2-3 days, but this is not a noticeable decline which makes sense. If buyers can wait another 4-6 weeks we might see decreasing prices. Having said that we also have to keep the supply side in mind. Supply of raw nuts from West Africa is drying up. Quantities shipped are significantly lower than previous years. Prices are very high, resulting in high kernel prices as we are experiencing at the moment. Are sellers able to lower their prices without taking a loss? Increasing processing costs, difficulties to find labour to keep factory running and strict rules with regards to financing are not leaving much room for processors to process. Our expectation remains as reported before. A more or less stable market around current levels for whole grades with a firm undertone for pieces due to the fact that the Far and Middle East markets will show an increasing demand in the coming weeks/months for the various festivals and Ramadan.
12.05.2010 Cashews
The market for cashewnutkernels is very quiet as both sellers and buyers are uncertain about the developments:
Sellers/Processors are uncertain about the price developments of the raw nuts. Crop from East Africa is known, but the crops from West Africa are arriving now with delays. This delay caused a ‘shortage’ on the markets of raw seeds in India and Vietnam and pushed prices up for raw seeds as the factories needed to buy. Currently there are some rumours from West Africa that crops in Ivory Coast, Benin/Nigeria and Guinea Bissau are down in comparison with earlier figures and expectations and pushing prices up as well. The uncertainty keeps them nervous and prices high! Only a regular flow of raw seeds will make their mind easier. Buyers on the other hand prefer to wait as long as possible as prices for kernels are high. They hope, with staying out of the market and not showing demand, sellers will lower their prices to generate interest. Most buyers still need to cover part of their 2010 requirements and some might be pushed to start buying soon as they are without product. As buyers –in common- do not have long term contracts for the moment (because of the financial recession in combinations with stricter rules of the banks on stocks & inventory) they probably have to keep on buying and supporting current price levels. Summarizing: When demand will remain in the market prices will stabilize around current levels and probably be slightly firmer. When demand will remains slow for a couple more weeks, sellers might reduce their prices to levels around Usd 2,65-2,70 per lbs basis FOB for WW320.
29.04.2010 Cashews
The cashew nut market is not moving much. Due to virtually no demand, prices of kernels came down a little bit but the prices for the raw nuts remain high in comparison with previous years. Buyers are withdrawn for later positions and only buy hand to mouth for nearby shipments. They expect prices to ease during the 2nd half when new crop in India and Vietnam will be available. Our recommendation for the moment would be to keep a close eye on the market, probably cover 25-35% of your requirements and lock in hand to mouth for the 2nd half. We do not expect prices to come down much to the levels of 5 to 10 years averages as labour and processing costs increased significantly over the past years.
14.04.2010 Cashews
Prices of cashewnutkernels have eased over the past 5-7 days. This is mainly caused by a lack of demand, but also because the prices for raw seeds came down a little bit. For the moment it is a bit difficult to judge how the market will move forward. As shipments of raw seeds from Africa are delayed, availability of raw seeds might be an issue for the April/May shipments. A consequence of this short situation might be that processors will have difficulties to get their commitments shipped in time. This could keep the market short. Buyers purchasing attitude of only covering hand to mouth might result in increasing prices in the short term when interest picks up again. Our recommendation is to be covered until at least until the 2nd quarter (until July shipment) and take a partly coverage on the 2nd half 2010.
31.03.2010 Cashews
The cashewnutmarket became very volatile. The delayed crops in West Africa are putting a lot of pressure on the processors in –mainly- Vietnam. The Vietnamese processors were expecting the West African crop to arrive during April while this now will become May/June. In addition to this, the crop in Vietnam (2nd and 3rd crop) is not looking promising and even putting more fuel to the fire. Due to this uncertainty, buyers came into the market to cover their requirements on short terms and some traders covering their April/May shipment in their books. This increasing demand caused increasing kernel prices. The current prices –WW320 at Usd 2,85 per lbs basis FOB- are creating a lot of resistance in the market as buyers are not willing to buy at those levels.
As the crops in West Africa seems okay, just delayed by 4-6 weeks, we expect the market to ease in 3-4 weeks from now as the heat will be gone. The only interruption on this could be demand. When buyers start to enter the market again for 3rd quarter shipments, prices might remain at those levels.
17.03.2010 Cashews
Prices for cashewnutkernels went up over the past days. This is mainly caused by:
- Demand; some packers/roasters in Europe and USA covered some of their nearby requirements
- Uncertainty about the prices of the raw seeds; usually prices of kernels are cheaper when the raw material becomes available in India and Vietnam as the processors are trying to buy raw seeds at best possible levels.
The supply and demand situation in the coming weeks is very important to see where the market will go. It will most probably move between Usd 2,40-2,85 per lbs range for WW320. When there are enough raw seeds and sufficient availability prices might ease but when demand will pick up in April and May for the 2nd half, prices might go up to the high side of the range. We are following this market closely for you and will keep you updated.
4.03.2010 Cashews
There hasn’t been much activity over the past 2 weeks and prices became a bit easier. Due to lack of demand and processors trying to get some product moving and testing the market on prices (as they start covering raw seeds) some lower bids were accepted. A note to make is that current price levels are fading away selling interest of the processors and India and Vietnam are trying to support/grow the domestic markets where they expect to get better prices. This news from the main origins at the moment is worrying us a little bit as growing domestic markets will have a significant impact on exports in future. Growing economies and thus more local sales opportunities might create shortages in the future and thus cause higher prices.
Current price levels seems to be bottoming out and when more interest (as interest is still slow) shows up prices might slightly go up again.
16.02.2010 Cashews
The market of cashewnutkernels is not so active. Buyers are covered for the first quarter and waiting further developments in the market before covering additional purchases. Vietnamese market is closed due to Tet Holiday from Feb 10th to Feb 22nd 2010. Buyers are curious awaiting new crop figures. Good and satisfying crops might cause some further price decline although we are not too sure about this as demand is expected to pick up as well within the coming weeks. Buyers have to enter the market again for their 2nd and 3rd quarter commitments.
Current price levels are more or less in line (although some Indian/Vietnamese buyers bought raw nuts which equivalent price is higher) with the raw seed prices. As labor and finance costs increased we do not expect prices to come down to levels close to Usd 2,00-2,25 per lbs again. In our opinion, current price levels are workable and acceptable for supply chain and customers.
28.01.2010 Cashews
It is relatively quiet in the market of cashewnutkernels. Buyers are working out the figures of 4th quarter 2009 and forecasts on demand for 2010. The quietness in the market created lower prices which are at favorable levels now. It might be advisable to take some additional cover for the 1st half of the year as current kernel levels are not in parity with the raw seeds prices sold at to India and Vietnam. At current kernel prices processors are taking a loss –what they have to – as they have to pay their bank loans. Soonest demand will pick up it is expected that prices for kernels will go up as well.
With the revival of the world economy, we are expecting an increase in demand again while last year world demand (except India and China!) showed a decrease of 4-5%.
8.01.2010 Cashews
Due to limited demand, prices of cashewnutkernels came down a couple of percent. Supply in India and Vietnam is questionable for the moment and not sure that they will have enough volume of raw nuts until new crop arrives. Demand in the coming weeks will be very important for the price development. When consumer sales during the last quarter of 2009 have been good buyers will be back in the market shortly and cover their demand for 2nd and 3rd quarter. Otherwise we expect a more or less stable market with prices around current/slightly better levels.
22.12.2009 Cashews
Current price levels for cashewnut kernels are not of interest to sellers nor buyers. Sellers are reluctant to sell as raw nut prices are not good enough in comparison with kernel sales prices and buyers are awaiting/hoping for kernel prices to come down. As reported before as well, it is depending on supply and demand. Supply from East Africa is on his way to India and Vietnam and although prices are high, finding their outlet but it is reported in the market that the stocks will only be sufficient to keep Indian and Vietnam going until end January/February of 2010. New crop will become available in April/May 2010 in those countries so that supply during the 1st quarter and partly 2nd quarter will be limited to the processed African raw seeds. Demand in 2009 was down although the 2nd half made up quite a portion of the loss we experienced in the 1st half of 2009 and we are positive towards 2010. Reports are confirming that we are coming out of the recession and consumers become more positive. When demand will pick up during 1st half (after buyers know their inventory and Christmas sales) we expect prices to stay firm and probably increase slightly. When supply will be sufficient and demand in line, prices might ease a little bit to levels somewhere between Usd 2,70-2,85 per lbs for WW320 basis FOB for shipments 1ts quarter 2010.
8.12.2009 Cashews
The demand for cashewnutkernels remains in the market although not a lot of business is confirmed. Buyers are concerned about the current price levels and worried that those levels will have an impact on demand. Indian and Vietnam stocks of raw nuts are very limited and the processing industries in those countries have to rely on the shipments from East Africa. There is quite a bit of Tanzanian raw nuts on his way to India and Vietnam while Mozambique, by protecting their own industry, only will allow export of raw nuts in January 2010. Prices of raw nuts are quite high but, break even in comparison with current kernels prices. The way prices will move during the 1st quarter of 2010 depends on supply and demand. Will the crop in Brazil be damaged by the rains and less than expected (processors become really worried!) and what will the crop be in India and Vietnam? Our recommendation is to be covered for 1st quarter and partly for 2nd quarter 2010 at least.
27.11.2009 Cashews
Prices of cashewnutkernels increased significantly over the past weeks. Increasing interest, although not always confirmed, was putting a lot of pressure on the market of kernels. Also the limited availability of raw nuts is causing increase of price of the raw nuts from mainly East Africa. There are concerns of crop damage in Indonesia. The Brazilian crop is delayed and the question mark is if this delay will not cause damage to the crop when the seasonal rains will start. As buyers are reluctant to buy at current levels they wait but keeping the above in mind, prices might go up even further when demand will show up again and buyers start to cover. Our strong recommendation is to be covered up and until at least the 1st quarter of 2010 and probably up to 75% for the 2nd quarter.
11.11.2009 Cashews
In Europe the market is relatively quiet in comparison with the interest from the USA in the past week. Due to increasing demand, prices moved up. The availability of raw nuts remains a question. Based on the numbers available, the availability of raw nuts might become an issue in the months ahead until Indian and Vietnam new crop will become available. Prices of raw nuts in East Africa are going up following the kernel prices.
Unless demand will stabilize or disappear in the coming weeks, we expect a firm market. Our recommendation is to be covered until the 1st quarter of 2010 and probably part of 2nd quarter 2010.
30.10.2009 Cashews
The market of cashewnutkernels is a little bit difficult to read at the moment. There is increasing interest from USA and the Far East while demand from Europe is very limited. Based on the interest from USA and Far East, prices for kernels went slightly up as did the prices for the Indonesian raw nuts. Our strong recommendation would be to cover your needs for 2009 and 1st quarter of 2010. The Indian and Vietnamese new crop (April/May 2010) might give a relief to the market afterwards.
As a special we can make you the following offer, subject to final confirmation and unsold:
Mozambique cashewnutkernels WW450 at Usd 2,60 per lbs basis FCA Rotterdam
Mozambique cashewnutkernels LWP at Usd 1,58 per lbs basis FCA Rotterdam
16.10.2009 Cashews
The market is not very active. There are buyers around covering their nearby positions and some roasters are covering their requirements for the business concluded with the supermarket chains. Although the market is quiet, those few deals were pushing prices up by Usd 0,05-0,10 per lbs over the past weeks for WW320. Pipelines are filled until November/December and not much is covered yet for 2010. Buyers want to avoid filled up warehouses by year’s end to try to limit inventories and stocks as much as possible.
The only supplier of raw nuts for the moment is Indonesia and they are asking high prices in comparison with today’s kernel market prices. The next availability should come from Tanzania (who is not shipping yet) and Mozambique (where government only allows export next year to protect local industries). The rumours circling around are that Brazilian crop is not as good as expected. This means no relief from this origin can be expected.
Our recommendation would be to cover for the first quarter and up to 70% for the second quarter of next year as new crop India and Vietnam will become available then.
1.10.2009 Cashews
India: The domestic market in India is growing every year as the middle class is growing due to positive economic developments. With the growing population as well, we expect domestic demand to increase probably even stronger in the years ahead and that the Indian processors more and more will find their domestic market of interest.
Vietnam: The availability of raw nuts is becoming limited and will probably force some factories to downsize production. This might cause lower quantities to be shipped from Vietnam pushing the market up. In Vietnam work force is becoming an issue as it is difficult to find workers for the factories as they can get better money in other industries.
All in all our recommendation would be to cover for the last quarter of this year and 1st half of 2010 as we do not foresee a relief on prices until Indian and Vietnam new crop will become available.
18.09.2009 Cashews
The market is not very active for the moment. Most buyers are busy processing and not too sure yet how consumption will be during the last quarter. As they are not sure, they are reluctant to take forward positions as they are afraid to be locked up with stock at the end of the year. As the worldwide economy is showing more and more positive signs, we trust that consumers will be spending more towards the end of the year and that consumption could be back to normal shortly. We would recommend to take forward cover as prices might increase when demand shows up.
21.08.2009 Cashews
The cashew market remained quiet and this is expected to continue for the coming weeks as India will be celebrating their Onam festival. Prices have been weakening a bit, but this fall in prices came to a standstill due to limited offers from origin. Demand however is expected to pick up shortly as still quite some covering needs to be taking place. Prices will most probably remain stable with a slight upward potential till Christmas season. For first quarter 2010 prices might go down a bit due to the usual dip in demand after the holiday season. For the moment it is recommendable to have a look at your needs and take the necessary coverage.
27.07.2009 Cashews
The market for cashewnutkernels is quiet. Due to unanswered question, buyers keep on buying hand to mouth, i.e. prompt up to 3 months forward shipments The questions outstanding are as follows:.
- What will consumer demand be during the 2nd half of 2009?
- How are crops in Brazil and East Africa?
- When will buyers start buying for 1st half 2010?
When those questions marks can be answered, it will become clear where the prices will go to in the months ahead.
As it is quiet due to summer breaks there might show up some special opportunities in the weeks ahead.
During 2nd half of August, when most buyers will be back we expect increasing demand for the 4th quarter 2009 and 1st quarter 2010 shipment which might cause prices to go up.
15.07.2009 Cashews
The market of cashewnutkernels has been quite active during the past 2 weeks. Due to this interest, prices became firmer and increased approx. 5% for WW320, the main grade. USA and Europe start buying for the 3rd an d4th quarter shipments to have product in time to prepare for their Christmas sales season.
Buyers are not covering too far out as they are uncertain about market development but also -still- uncertain about consumers demand. So far consumption is down a little bit but not significantly. When interest will stabilize around current figures most packers and industries probably have to cover additional quantity towards year’s end.
The origin crops (India and Vietnam) are less than last season. The West African crops are nearly sold. Quality from Benin and Ghana is good while there are some quality issues on the raw nuts from Ivory Coast at the moment.
The next crops will become available in Brazil (rumors are that crop is delayed) and East Africa.
Probably during summer time some special opportunities will show up but in general the trend in pricing is expected to be stable/up in the months ahead. Prices of raw nuts were at par with today’s kernel prices. With increasing costs of processing and continuous demand, processors and sellers will try to get firmer prices.
29.06.2009 Cashews
The prices of cashews are going up further and spot goods are limited. The main reason for the prices to be firmer is the continuous demand in the market from buyers all around the world. The trend of buyers not going long term is still going on and will most probably not change in today’s insecure market. Besides that the demand in the market is pushing prices up. Furthermore prices in origin for RCN are gradually moving to higher levels putting some pressure on the processors. This indicates a lower crop than earlier anticipated. At the moment there are some rumors that there are delays from origin we sincerely hope that this will not cause the difficult situation as we have faced last year with prices being pushed up. Our recommendation is to book hand to mouth, but if contracts are already written with your customers it might be a good idea to take the premiums for granted and book some quantity for later positions as well.
3.06.2009 Cashews
Prices of cashewnutkernels went up significantly over the past weeks. Prices just 2-3 weeks ago were around
Usd 2,20 per lbs while current levels for WW320 are between Usd 2,40-2,45 per lbs basis FOB origin.
Exporters from India and Vietnam are reluctant to sell too far forward as they are nervous on market developments:
1) Prices for the raw nuts from West Africa are going up. Some West African countries are sold out already and the crop in Nigeria has some problems.
2) The costs of labor in India and Vietnam are going up and experienced workers are switching to other industries/jobs.
3) Demand from consumers is down a little bit but not significantly. As consumers seem to get more trust again, it might be that demand during 2nd half 2009 will be back to normal. As roasters/packers are uncertain on demand they are not taking long positions and buying just a couple of months ahead to avoid having huge inventories towards the end of the year. When demand will go back to normal they most probably have to cover the additional demand. This will give a continuous demand in the market, which confirms the sellers that there is no need for lowering their prices.
We recommend to take a forward position at current price level up to 60-70% of your requirements.
15.05.2009 Cashews
The market is uncertain and prices are going up. There are rumors about a damaged crop in Vietnam and delayed crop in India. Uncertainties on supply from India and Vietnam caused a rush on raw nuts from West Africa. Some West African countries are close to being sold out.
Processors/exporters are reluctant to make offers on long term and prefer just to sell for nearby shipment. Because of the uncertainty and expectations we recommend our buyers to cover their requirements at least until 3rd quarter and probably also 50-75% of the 4th quarter.
23.04.2009 Cashews
Prices went up a couple of cents in the past days because of good interest from buyers and uncertain news from the origin countries. Vietnam is offering but limited volumes as they are still not sure about the crop size. The Indian domestic market is growing so fast that they are not offering any FS or LWP or other pieces, which also results in higher prices for kernels. Consumer demand in northern Europe is more or less stable and comparable with 2008. In USA we heard that consumer interest is picking up as the signals are becoming positive about the economic developments.