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15.03.2012 Brazilnuts
Prices are stable around or just below Usd 4,00 per lbs. As written in our previous report, processors are not in the position to decrease prices further as they invested a lot in the purchase of the inshell nuts at relatively high prices. Collectors negotiated those prices before entering the jungle. At that time, kernel prices were significantly higher than today’s prices. Demand will be the driven factor in the weeks ahead but uncertainty grows. It is very well possible that prices will slightly increase when sellers/processors are feeling comfortable on volume sold.
22.12.2011 Brazilnuts
Although the 2011 crop was more or less sold out two months ago, demand has virtually come to a standstill and there is a clear indication that consumers do not accept these excessive price levels. Despite only a handful of containers being offered in recent weeks, prices have started to soften. This downward trend is needed as the new crop collection is beginning now and it is crucial that factories buy raw material at considerably lower prices. As always with raw material markets, once a price is set, it is very hard to reduce it later. In terms of predicting what will happen in the future we would like to think that the price of Brazilnuts could again have a 3 at the beginning – however we would like to make clear that despite the high prices this year we do not see any investment at all by the industry in Bolivia to increase the potential crop collection. Statistics show that we had production of kernels at about 20.000 mton for the last two years and we are afraid that there is not much potential for this to increase without new investment in collecting infrastructure. Weak demand is the only way to get prices down, which we hope will be the case over the next couple of months. Our recommendation is to wait for forward covering as there is a big potential for prices to fall.
8.12.2011 Brazilnuts
The current crop is more or less sold out and therefore the focus is more and more on new crop. Collectors will enter the jungle shortly to start collecting the pods with the brazilnuts inshell. The collected volumes highly depend on prices processors are willing to pay as the real crop is always bigger than what is collected as some of it is too far into the jungle. Higher prices make collectors more interested to get as much as possible product and go collect farther. First new crop is expected to be processed during February/March and depending on the road conditions (too much rain might damage the road an make transport impossible) first shipments expected March/April. Our recommendation is to make sure that first positions are covered and perhaps wait a little for the later positions.
27.10.2011 Brazilnuts
The uncommitted inventory is very limited. Prices are firm (well above Usd 5,00 per lbs) and might go higher based on supply/demand rules. Collecting the new crop will start in December and first processing to be end January/February. Depending on logistic conditions (road conditions) first new crop shipment are expected to leave February/March.
26.08.2011 Brazilnuts
Offers from origin are hard to find for the moment. Stocks of inshell brazilnuts in origin are limited. Because of this lack of supply, prices are very firm and shortage might create even higher (well over Usd 5,00 per lbs) prices. Our strong recommendation remains to be covered for the open positions until new crop which is usually departing origin – depending weather and road conditions- during March/April.
11.08.2011 Brazilnuts
The availability of stocks in origin and Europe are small. Buyers are strongly recommended to cover their needs until February/March 2012 at least as supply will become an issue and additional demand can push prices up easily.
14.07.2011 Brazilnuts
Like almost all markets of Treenuts, also availability of brazilnutkernels is limited. Uncommitted stock in origin is drying up and stocks in Europe and USA are mostly sold as well. Current price indications are coming close to Usd 5,00 per lbs already and expected to go over this level in the coming weeks when interest will pick up for the last quarter of 2011.
1.07.2011 Brazilnuts
The prices of Brazilnutkernels are still increasing based on supply and demand. Offers from origin are scarce. Buyers start to realize that availability may become an issue on the short / middle long term until new crop (March/April 2012) and trying to cover their demand. In the figure you see the price development during 2010 and 2011 (per week).
16.06.2011 Brazilnuts
Market of Brazilnutkernels is very difficult at the moment. Usually offers are available for prompt & forward shipments. Processors know their inventory, calculate their commitments and offer out the product they have in hand. This year it is different. It seems that most processors have committed most of their stocks and become uncertain if they should sell additional volume now or wait a little bit. Due to limited/no offers from origin, prices in Europe went up rapidly and might increase further. Our recommendation is to cover your requirements.
31.05.2011 Brazilnuts
As the offers from origin are very limited, prices for Brazilnutkernels are not coming down yet. It was expected that when the flow of shipments would start again, enough product would become available, empty pipelines be filled and prices to ease. As the origin is pretty well sold and committed, they are offering hand to mouth.
It is expected that prices on short term will not change much.
19.05.2011 Brazilnuts
It is a very difficult market to comment on. As the total crop arrived at the processing area and basically is sold to the processors, there is not much room for prices to ease. The only possibility for decreasing prices would be lack of demand. This seems unlikely as most buyers are just buying hand to mouth for the time being and not covered for August onwards deliveries. Resulting in continuous demand in the market. The big question mark to be answered at the moment is why prices didn’t increase further in April and May. Stocks in Europe were and still are drying up due to no shipments from origin from the middle of March until the end of April caused by bad roads from Riberalta to the port. Although stocks in Europe became limited, prices did not increase significantly over the past weeks. Is this caused by less demand or people covered and waiting as long as possible?? Shipments started again 2 weeks ago, and one could gamble a little bit and hope for prices to ease when a significant number of containers will arrive in 2-4 weeks from now. Keeping in mind that there are a lot of buyers who still need to buy for the last months of 2011, this is a risk. Fact is that processors have bought the raw material based (more or less) on today’s kernel prices and when the market would drop, they have to take a serious hit.
18.04.2011 Brazilnuts
Prices for Brazilnutkernels are very firm due a shortage in the market for spot and nearby. Shipments are blocked for the moment due to bad roads. Transport from Riberalta (processing area in Bolivia) to the port is very difficult / impossible. We hope that this will be solved soon. Soonest shipment will start again and arrive at destinations and pipelines filled, we expect the market to ease (due to surplus) availability. Current price levels are well over Usd 4,00 per lbs.
8.04.2011 Brazilnuts
The situation in Bolivia is far from easy. Many factors are playing a role in the increasing prices. Government interference is one of them but the main problems are now caused by bad weather conditions. Heavy rains have made it difficult for the collectors to go into the jungle to collect the nuts. The expectation is that this will result in a smaller crop. Besides the problems for the collectors the road out of the jungle to La Paz has been cut off. This road is vital to get the processed product out of the area. Having said that the processors are now stockpiling as they need to wait for the water to lower and after that some repair needs to be done to get the road in good shape again. Because of the earlier written, we expect the market to be short around May, but later we might see a surplus of nuts when processors push their stocks out.
3.03.2011 Brazilnuts
Processing factories in origin are fully booked upto June shipments. As they are fully booked for nearby they need to cover inshell nuts for their processing. Supply of raw seeds from the jungle seems to be slow and prices are going up. The uncertainty about this situation is creating confusion in the market. Sellers are withdrawn for nearly 2 weeks now, which is also creating uncertainty in the European and USA markets. Our recommendation would be to be covered for nearby and be patient for July/August onwards for the moment. Hopefully the patience can give some relief to prices.
1.12.2010 Brazilnuts
The market of Brazilnutkernels is very firm and reached its peak in September. Since then, prices are more or less stable. We would have been hoping that this would have been the top for the year but, unfortunately, we can now confirm –since our supplier visited Bolivia last week- the market will become more difficult and might not have reach the top yet!! Unsold balances are left in the hands of ‘strong’ stockholders, leaving the market with a very high risk (or should we say: danger) of a price squeeze on the current crop prices over the next 3 months. Some exporters/processors have to ask portions of their December shipments to be moved to new crop. This can lead to a vacuum of Brazilnutkernels in the market. Based on the above information we would not be surprised if the prices would go through the Usd 4,00 per lbs barrier sooner or later. The next available product has to come out of new crop which will become available from February/March 2011 shipments onwards, i.e. product to arrive in consuming countries during April/May providing that there will be no logistical problems in origin. New crop so far looks OK and might reach 1100-1200 FCL’s of kernels. When the origin production gets into full production (around May time), prices might ease to levels around Usd 3,10-3,25 per lbs basis FCA Europe in the middle of the year (June/July onwards shipments). We have to keep a couple of remarks in mind though: 1) The collectors are likely to be paid a very high price in the beginning of the season as the pipelines are empty (as mentioned above), in combination with the processors/exporters having to complete 2010 contract they have to roll over. 2) The union of the collectors have already organized a salary increase agreement with the factories of 10-15% which on longer term also will limit how far the market can come down when production will come into full swing. 3) Another long term structural change in the supply side in Bolivia, which again might limit the chances of Brazilnut prices falling sharply next years, is the situation in Brazil. In recent years Brazil has provided 15-25% of the raw material to the Bolivian factories. We are aware now that there is a significant increase in internal demand in Brazil and we suspect that, combined with the high costs of production and collecting in Brazil, this supply side could easily be cut off over the next 2-3 years. 4) Obviously there is a down side risk as well. Natural deduction of demand because of unprecedented dollar levels this year in combination with the currently sharpening weakening Euro (end 2009: 1,50, currently 1,30-1,32) will have an impact on demand in Europe. Europe is an important market, taking 40-45% of the Brazilnut demand. Obviously when demand is sharply decreasing next year this will have an impact on prices. Thinking over the above, we are sure that the market will be very strong for the first 3 shipping months (February until April). Therefore we recommend to cover shipment until April shipment from origin (June arrival in Europe). For May shipments onwards we would not commit at this stage as we still hope that strong production middle of the year could help prices to come off by 10-15%.
17.11.2010 Brazilnuts
Due to the limited availability, prices remain high. Most buyers seem to be covered until the end of the year and will first analyse Christmas sales before taking additional positions. This is obvious as also prices for Brazilnutkernels are high. Nonetheless it is advisable to be covered until new crop –as availability might become an issue- which is expected to be shipped March/April, depending on weather and road conditions.
20.10.2010 Brazilnuts
Stocks of Brazilnutkernels are very limited. New crop only will become available from May/June onwards in Europe and our strong advice is to be covered until then. Offers are hard to find. Price indications around Usd 3,80-3,90 per lbs basis FCA
24.08.2010 Brazilnuts
Prices of Brazilnutkernels remain high. In the below graph you can see that prices are high in comparison with the 5-years average. Reason is the smaller crop and increasing demand. New crop only will be gathered from the jungle starting December and will be available for shipment from March next year onwards. Until then supply will be a struggle and prices might even go up further. It is our recommendation to be covered until 1st quarter 2011 and watch the new crop developments carefully.
11.08.2010 Brazilnuts
In a quiet market, the prices for Brazilnutkernels are going up. Some re-sellers are quoting lower prices as they want to turn their long position into money but this is not really reflecting the developments in the origin. Prices are firming and due to lack of availability are expected to increase further. Our strong recommendation is to cover positions.
29.07.2010 Brazilnuts
As written in earlier market reports the brazilnutmarket was expected to see increasing prices. This seems to have happened in the past weeks as prices increased from the USD 3.00/lbs mark some time ago to levels getting close to USD 3.50/lbs and expected to increase even further. As such our recommendation remains the same i.e. cover if possible until new crop as there is no sign for prices to ease beforehand.
8.07.2010 Brazilnuts
The availability of Brazilnutkernels in origin remains an issue. Reports are stating that the unsold volume is very limited while we still have 7-8 months to go before new crop will become available for shipment. Our recommendation remains to cover until new (2011) season as we expect prices to rise.
11.06.2010 Brazilnuts
The market for the moment is continuing to be tight. It is hard to find the product nearby and on shipment basis. As demand is also limited for the moment, prices are more or less stable but expected to rise in the coming months. Our recommendation remains to be covered until new crop, i.e. April/May 2011.
12.05.2010 Brazilnuts
The Brazilnut market is difficult at the moment. The main reason for this is the smaller quantities of inshells gathered from the jungle. Last year the total availability on kernels was around 1250 FCL’s while this year it is expected to be ‘only’ 1000 containers, i.e. a decrease of approx. 20%. This significant decrease in quantity was not expected. Prices were stable until traders discovered the smaller supply. When this became public, prices moved up rapidly and significantly. Lowest prices this season have been around Usd 2,35-2,45 per lbs where current price levels are around Usd 3,00 per lbs for new crop. We would strongly recommend to cover your positions as far out as possible as prices might increase even further when buyers jump into this market to cover 2nd half 2010 and first quarter 2011.
31.03.2010 Brazilnuts
Following a bumper production in 2008 (21000mt) we ended up having a small production in 2009 (14500mt) this was mainly caused by a collapse in the market price at the end of 2008 which led to the raw material collectors in Bolivia being financially disincentivised from making a normal collection the net result was a small production and a sharply rising market price during 2009 – in Usd the movement was from Usd 1,80 per lbs to Usd 2,95 per lbs in December 09.
We were expecting the high finishing process to allow for a much better incentive for the collectors to produce a more normal crop in 2010 and a subsequent fall in prices to more reasonable levels. The initial predictions were for a market range of Usd 2,25 to Usd 2,30 per lbs for this year.
The crop is collected between January and April and after a high opening price for the raw material in January the expecting fall off in prices as the collection and arrivals of raw materials to the factories gathered momentum
Unfortunately and against the expectations since the end of February the opposite has been happening with the raw material market in Bolivia rising every week rather than falling – the only explanation for this is that there is a developing supply problem from Brazil where 35-40 pct of the ‘in shell’ nuts that are processed in Bolivia emanate from – prices of the raw material are rocketing and indicate either a small crop or a very buoyant domestic market which we know is growing
Having spoken to all the Bolivian factories over the last week the best guess for total production this year is only going to be around 16000mt which is well short of the 18 to 19000mt needed to service a normal world demand
We are afraid we now see little benefit in waiting as there seems a strong possibility that the market ay trend back up to the highs of 2009 i.e. Usd 2,95 per lb.
17.03.2010 Brazilnuts
The market for Brazilnutkernels has been difficult to read although there has not seen too much buying activity from customers in the last few weeks (and therefore were expecting to see the prices soften from the factories). Strangely enough, the raw material prices (in shell) have been rising steadily in Bolivia. Normally this would indicate a crop problem but there is no information that would indicate that either at this point in time.
In summary: prices are holding at a higher level than we were expecting for the moment and it could be advisable to take some cover. Offers are available on request.
4.03.2010 Brazilnuts
The market for Brazilnutkernels is not very active for the moment. Most buyers are awaiting the prices to come down a little bit further after the price hike we have seen in the past months when prices went up from levels around Usd 2,25-2,35 per lbs up to levels close to Usd 3,00 per lbs. Current stock levels are very limited and leaving some pressure on the current prices. We expect this to continue until new crop arrives in the European market and will start filling the empty pipelines.
First new crop is expected to be shipped soon for arrival April/May 2010.
Having written the above we have to take note of the fact that the prices of raw nuts (which usually decreases when new crop arrives in the market) are stable to firming. The most important reason is that factories are urgently taking in product to start production but the question mark is how long this will continue.
We recommend to cover until June/July and probably –when prices fit in the calculation- also cover part of the requirements until the end of the year.
16.02.2010 Brazilnuts
Prices are stable. It seems that the heat is out of the market. Buyers who did not cover their positions are just buying hand to mouth and limiting their purchases as much as they can. First new crop is arriving at the factories and they will start processing shortly. Surprisingly, prices of raw seeds are going up while usually they come down when sufficient quantities are arriving in the market. It is a bit unsure how this will continue and what effect this will have on the prices. First new crop is significantly cheaper than current crop but our recommendation would be to be patient a little bit to see how the market will develop from April/May onwards.
The first new crop is expected to be available in the market from June/July onwards.
8.01.2010 Brazilnuts
Supply is very limited. Collectors have entered the forest to gather the new crop which will only be available for shipment from March/April onwards. Total availability is uncertain for the moment and depending on the money the processors will pay the collectors. Pending stocks in origin and Europe/USA are very very limited and pushed up prices to close to Usd 3,00 per lbs levels. When you need additional volume before arrival of new crop (expected May/June) we strongly recommend to cover.
8.12.2009 Brazilnuts
As previously advised we have a very difficult situation developing on the 2009 crop (current crop).
To summarise the situation: after a very large 2008 crop and production in Bolivia (about 1350 FCL’s against world demand of about 1100 FCL’s), we had a collapse in prices in December 2008. This price collapse, combined with factories carrying a large 2008 crop inventory and a general lack of bank finance available due to the world economic crisis, had an extremely adverse impact on the collection of the 2009 crop between January and April of this year (for example: collectors were only paid half the price of in shell compared to 2008). As a result the estimation of the total production in Bolivia will be lucky to reach 800 FCL’s.
To give another illustration of the different market conditions between 2008 and 2009: last year around the first week of December 2008 there were about 350 FCL’s of 2008 crop still offered for December/February shipping positions in contrast to some weeks ago only 25 unsold FCL’s could be identified and all the factories, apart from two, had already closed in October.
The impact of the above on pricing has been quite gradual with the market price rising gradually from a low of Usd 1,80/lb (delivered Europe) in February, rising to Usd 2,30/lb one month ago. However, today the situation has changed quite dramatically since there has been no new offers from origin on 2009 crop for the last four weeks. There has been a kind of panic by buyers to try and find material for the January to May positions before new crop is available.
New crop: normally after a short year the high prices prevailing act as a stimulus to the collection of the new crop and we would expect to see a much better production in 2010.
However there are some factors that may continue to have a negative effect on the 2010 crop. On Friday there were presidential elections in Bolivia . If the current president Mr Morales is returned to power with a good majority this will have a negative impact on the Brazilnut sector. His ongoing policy is to remove the rights of the old land owning families to exclusively work their land and he is encouraging itinerant peoples from the highlands to move to jungle areas to grab land where and when they want.
Traditionally there are 87 businesses / families in Bolivia who produce 80pct of the crop on their own land and have the infrastructure i.e. warehouses, tractors, boats etc to provide the free flow of the crop to the factories. Last year and maybe again this year they will be reluctant to send workers to the collection areas as they are not sure If they can remove them at the end of the crop because of the government encouragement to any native citizen to invade and stay on the land.
Secondly the government has set up a Brazilnut company with several million dollars of funding with the express purpose of raising the prices of the in shell market ( perhaps similar to Fiskobirlik/TMO in Turkey) so the collectors will receive higher payments. The government is doing this for purely political reasons and has no interest in the long term health or viability of the industry and private companies. This may or may not have a serious impact on the coming crop.
As a result of all these uncertainties most of the factories do not want to make a market for 2010 crop until they have raw material at a known cost in their warehouses in January/February 2010.
27.11.2009 Brazilnuts
As written in our previous report, the availability is very limited and origin is sold out for the current crop. The factories are closed and they await the new crop. Current price indications vary between Usd 2,50-2,60 per lbs for current crop while new crop offers are hardly available.
11.11.2009 Brazilnuts
It is becoming difficult to get prices for Brazilnutkernels as the factories in origin are sold out. The remaining volume in origin left is very very limited and sellers are asking high prices for those. A lot of factories are closed already and will only open when new crop becomes available in February/March 2010 for shipment very end March/April. The first new crop will be available in the market during May/June 2010.
Current price ideas for medium/midget are around Usd 2,35-2,40 but can rapidly increase in the coming weeks while stocks are drying up during/after the Christmas season.
In 2009 approx. 850 loads of kernels are processed and exported together with a carry in of the 2008 crop of approx. 300-350 loads. Last year around this time of the year there were sufficient stocks (and even more than that) of 400-450 loads while now everything is sold!
Collectors will enter the jungle during the 2nd half of December 2009 to collect the new crop.
1.10.2009 Brazilnuts
The prices for Brazilnutkernels are stable but we might expect some increase when buyers start to show interest for the 1st half of 2010. The supply out of 2009 crop is limited and down in comparison with previous years and this might create shortages early next year. New crop will (under usual reserves) be available from March/April onwards for shipment from origin.
27.07.2009 Brazilnuts
As buyers are becoming aware that the prices of brazilnutkernels will not come down, they start covering as far out as possible – if possible even until new crop 2010. This is pushing prices up as offers from origin are not easy to find. The offers made are most of the time booked immediately and sold to final customers instead of being available to supply spot demand. Current price levels are around Usd 2,28-2,30 per lbs basis FCA Europe for collection until December 2009.
15.07.2009 Brazilnuts
The first new crop Brazilnutkernels are afloat which is very late as usually first new crop is starting to enter the European market in May/June. Reason is that most processors were having stock of old crop which they had to process first. Due to lack of interest by the end of 2008 and the start of 2009, sales from origin were slow.
As processors had less money (as they were sitting on 2008 crop stock) to pay the collectors and the collectors asking more money, out of 2009 crop less nuts are collected. Usually the crop exported from Southern America is around 1100-1200 FCL's while we expect the crop to be down to 'only' 800 FCL's now. Prices moved up from levels around Usd 1,60 per lbs to currently between Usd 2,15-2,25 per lbs.
29.06.2009 Brazilnuts
Lack of supply has caused prices to go up rapidly in the past couple of weeks. Based on the information we wrote earlier, there is no reason to think that prices will go down as the product picked in the jungle is limited resulting in lesser product available. Demand on the other hand seems to be untouched and therefore it will become an interesting year for this item. Our recommendation remains that taking cover for the rest of the season is vital in order to fulfill demand.
3.06.2009 Brazilnuts
The market for Brazilnutkernels is going up slowly but surely. Lack of supply of inshell Brazilnuts from the jungle will most obviously create a shortage during the 2nd half of the year. While they usually export well over 1000 FCL’s annually the expectations for the 2009 crop are just around 800 containers. Prices at the moment are varying a little bit but might get up to Usd 2,00 per lbs in the months ahead. Our recommendation is to cover as far out as possible until new crop 2010.
23.04.2009 Brazilnuts
There is currently quite a bit of activity in the market of brazilnutkernels. Prices have been sliding down caused by a fair amount of stocks there were around some weeks ago. Stockholders wanted to turn the stocks into cash and as such decreased prices. As a result stocks decreased each day and are almost gone. It is a bit of a question mark what will happen when these stocks are gone as recent news from origin indicate that production will be down significantly. Some sources expect only 60% production compared to last year. Even when demand in the UK will decrease dramatically this could result in a shortage and as such result in higher prices. Especially when current crop stocks are cleared this could have quite an immediate impact on the prices. Our recommendation is to cover your needs sooner rather than later or at least take partial coverage.