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15.03.2012 Almonds
The almond market is currently a one-way street and there are currently no signs that this will change in the near future. The latest numbers were booming and up 30% compared to last February and the year-to-date numbers are up 13%. This is in line with the needed increase to market a crop of approx. 2 billion pounds. Buying activity from the Middle East is strong with already quite some loads on their way for Ramadan.
Blooming of the new crop looks good and only very little problems due to some frost were reported.
It seems that the almond market is becoming a very stable one and maybe the most stable of all treenuts. This fact in combination with the good prices (compared to other Treenuts) are a good sign for the future.
15.03.2012 Brazilnuts
Prices are stable around or just below Usd 4,00 per lbs. As written in our previous report, processors are not in the position to decrease prices further as they invested a lot in the purchase of the inshell nuts at relatively high prices. Collectors negotiated those prices before entering the jungle. At that time, kernel prices were significantly higher than today’s prices. Demand will be the driven factor in the weeks ahead but uncertainty grows. It is very well possible that prices will slightly increase when sellers/processors are feeling comfortable on volume sold.
15.03.2012 Cashews
The market for cashewnutkernels remains uncertain. Demand is nearly none, but prices are stabilizing between Usd 3,30-3,50 per lbs for WW320 on FOB basis.
Supply: prices for raw seeds are stable. Indian and Vietnamese traders/processors are currently arriving in Africa, but want to hold their purchases as long as possible. This is obviously their approach to try and get prices down but the contrary is the case for the first new crop. Especially in Benin, prices increased a little and this is also the expectation if the real business is going to start.
Crops in some countries of West Africa are delayed as is also the case in India and Vietnam. What the impact of this delay will be is hard to tell but usually the total crop quantity comes down with the delay.
In West Africa another important buyer, aside Indian and Vietnam, will be Brazil. Last year they bought close to 50.000 mton while this year they are expected to increase this number significantly. The Brazilian processing industry has an installed capacity of over 300.000 mton whereas their crop is expected to be around 230.000 mton this season, i.e. they will try to cover about 70.000 mton from West Africa.
Keeping the above in mind, there is still some room for prices to ease but when the RCN shipments are on their way to India & Vietnam (who will remain by far the biggest buyers for raw seeds) this will get more difficult. Processors may even increase the kernel prices as demand is expected to pick up from April/May onwards.
Demand: is slow for the moment. Buyers are awaiting further developments in raw seeds prices. Most of them are covered for nearby but positions after May/June are open.
15.03.2012 Hazelnuts
The downwards price trend of 3 weeks ago is fully compensated by the upwards trend of the last 2 weeks.
Currently prices are fluctuating based on the currency exchange and market conditions. The US$ is today just above the 1.80 level, which is the highest level for some time now. Prices in the local market in TL terms are fluctuating, due to sellers which are dissappearing as fast as they appear. So there is no constant supply of hazelnuts available.
The weather has been reasonably cold this year. Today it is about 6C and the forecast for the next 2 days is snow for the Black Sea area. There is better/warmer weather expected after next Monday. Snow is still present in the high areas, but it is not badly affecting the new crop as long as it remains the same and don’t come back after the warmer weather that is expected for next week.
The first estimations for the new crop are around 650-700+ thousand tons however this is just flower counting at the moment and it is not hazelnuts but just flowers. As you may know last year, the first estimations flower countings were around 630 thousand tons, but only about 450 thousand tons are now estimated. As it is still in the fertilisation stages, it is too early to say give a good forecast. The flower counting is still continouing and the official figures are expected to be released within the coming weeks.
15.03.2012 Macadamias
Activity in the macadamias remains strong. It is getting more difficult to find offers for Style 4 and smaller, but we should keep in mind that it is early in the season. Most packers in Australia and South Africa first want to know how much they will get and what style spread they can expect. Nonetheless Australia seems to have booked quite some volume already at firm prices. Downward potential in this market is very limited as Chinese buyers remain very active and this is having an impact on the prices paid to the farmers. This trend is also seen in the industrial market, where demand remains strong and prices firm. Our recommendation is to book your needs at least for the 3rd and 4th quarter when you have back-to-back deals and otherwise about 50%. On the snack market a slower approach can be adopted, but also there we see the market shifting a bit. Where Europe was leading in this industry we see much more demand from new emerging markets and therefore it is in our opinion wise to have a look at your needs on snack products as well.
15.03.2012 Pecans
Processors are quite well sold on bigger Halves as Junior MM Halves. Pieces and Large/Extra Large Halves are easier to find and therefore the gap between those 2 is widening. While it is usually between Usd 0,15-0,25 per lbs, it is now between Usd 0,45-0,65 per lbs. If you still need to cover Jr MM Halves, we strongly advise to cover your requirements. For pieces or Large Halves covering hand-to-mouth seems to be a good a strategy for the moment.
15.03.2012 Pistachios
The pistachios market is relatively quiet here in Europe, which was also visible in the shipment figures of January. This was the opposite of what we have seen in many other markets and also the US domestic market. As such we can say that the pistachio industry seems to be in a relatively good shape with stable prices. Offers are getting scarcer as origin suppliers are very well sold. This is quite early, but it is not expected to have too much of an impact on the prices. For new crop the developments so far are good and a good crop can be expected.
15.03.2012 Walnuts
The walnut market is quiet and stable. USA crop is finished, Chili is starting, Eastern Europe is quiet and the Middle East is trading a lot of hand cracked USA walnuts from other origins and mainly from Mersin. Mersin is full of inshell Chandler and demand for Ramadan is not comparable to the last years. The problems in the Middle East and mainly Syria at the moment are causing a lot of uncertainty, borders are closed, faith is fading away and the economic development is zero. On the other hand there is enough needed when we look at previous years and the question is when this demand is coming back in the market. It seems that the delayed crop and shipment from California and arrival after Christmas are still affecting the market. California is sold out where Eastern Europe on the other hand is still having enough product. This could be a good moment for those buyers whom never dealt with Eastern Europe to give it a try and be prepared for next year. The price difference can become even bigger.